By the end of this week the IHSA state basketball tournament brackets will be set. The road to Champaign will be laid out.
But first comes the seeding process as coaches from across the state will seed the sectionals this week.
There is a lot that should go into seeding a sectional. The win total does matter. The sparkling record, however, can sometimes be deceiving. Who those wins came against — the number of quality wins a team has compiled — should be taken into account.
The other factors to consider: head-to-head results, how a team is currently playing and the old fashioned look test.
The annual City/Suburban Hoops Report seeding forecast is here for Class 4A. Here are the top eight seeds for each Class 4A sectional across the Chicago area, including the reasons and defense of those seeds.
Bartlett Sectional
1. Glenbard East (24-3)
2. York (24-4)
3. Batavia (18-8)
4. Glenbard North (19-6)
5. Wheaton-Warrenville South (17-9)
6. Wheaton North (15-9)
7. Leyden (19-7)
8. Glenbard West (10-14)
Overview: Glenbard East did suffer an upset loss to Riverside-Brookfield last week, but it’s certainly done enough to warrant the No. 1 seed.
York has been one of the surprise teams of the year and has won 12 of its last 13. Despite a one-point loss to Batavia back in December, York still gets the slight edge as the second seed due to its full body of work.
The résumé for both York and Batavia are similar, but York’s six additional wins must count for something. And Batavia’s eight losses over the course of two-plus months isn’t just in a vacuum.
But if we’re talking about the hottest team that’s playing the best basketball? It’s Batavia. The Bulldogs are 13-1 since holiday tournament time and are 15-3 since their 3-5 start to the season. It’s been a complete and impressive turnaround.
The red-hot Bulldogs also beat Glenbard North in January after falling to them twice earlier in the season.
Glenbard North lost to Wheaton South in December but did win the most recent matchup. That nudges them up to the No. 4 seed.
Wheaton South has beaten Wheaton North twice this season — by a combined three points — to secure the fifth seed and a likely third matchup with Glenbard North in the regional championship.
Leyden is the outlier. There is the solid win total, but it has only beaten two teams, Mather and Morton, with a winning record. Glenbard West’s record falls short, but the schedule the Hilltoppers have faced is rock solid.
Mount Carmel Sectional
1. Curie (22-1)
2. St. Ignatius (24-4)
3. Young (20-6)
4. Mount Carmel (16-10)
5. St. Laurence (21-6)
6. Riverside-Brookfield (20-6)
7. Lyons (18-6)
8. Kenwood (15-6)
Overview: In a sectional where there are 13 teams with winning records and another three hovering right at the .500 mark, this is the most difficult sectional to seed. Well, not at the top. But it gets tough immediately after the top two seeds are placed.
Curie and St. Ignatius have both done their work to earn those top two seeds.
Young, which lost to St. Ignatius by just one point early in the season, has a strong schedule and hot streak — the Dolphins have won 14 of their last 15 — to help nab the three seed.
Mount Carmel and St. Laurence have scuffled of late while facing the grueling part of their schedules. St. Laurence has the win total but is just 2-5 (through Monday) in the Catholic League and lacks the marquee wins. Mount Carmel has beaten Loyola, Lincoln Park and owns an overtime win over St. Laurence a few weeks ago.
Riverside-Brookfield has quietly put together a strong second half of the season. The Bulldogs just lost their first game since Christmas this past weekend, falling to Oak Lawn, and have beaten Lyons and a ranked Glenbard East in the second half of the season.
The No. 8 and No. 9 seeds will be filled by either Kenwood, Oak Lawn, Simeon or Perspectives-Leadership.
In a bizarre twist, Simeon is unranked and quickly falls out of the conversation of being a top eight seed. The Wolverines don’t have a single statement win on the season. The best win to-date is a 56-55 victory over Class 2A Peoria Manual (15-8). That takes them out of the conversation.
Oak Lawn has 22 wins and did get a quality win over Riverside-Brookfield over the weekend. But it hasn’t faced the schedule of others in this sectional, playing just one ranked team all season, losing to Mount Carmel.
Kenwood was just blasted by Hillcrest over the weekend, but it did beat Rich, Lincoln Park, Hyde Park and it took care of Perspectives-Leadership. They’ve also played New Trier, Peoria Richwoods and Loyola. That schedule earns them the No. 8 seed, edging out Oak Lawn, who would settle in at No. 9, followed by nine-loss Perspectives-Leadership at 10.
You are looking at some dangerous regional semifinal games for some higher seeded teams with the likes of Perspectives-Leadership and Simeon falling to 10 and 11.
Joliet West Sectional
1. Homewood-Flossmoor (22-3)
2. Marist (24-4)
3. Lockport (22-4)
4. Brother Rice (19-9)
5. Lincoln-Way Central (17-8)
6. Joliet West (18-8)
7. Thornwood (18-9)
8. Rich (14-12)
Overview: The top three seeds are pretty much locked in at the top. And then it gets dicey.
Yes, Lockport won the most recent matchup with Homewood-Flossmoor. But H-F has beaten Lockport twice this season and owns signature wins over ranked teams in Loyola, Mount Carmel and Bolingbrook. As a result of those quality wins, the Vikings receive the top seed.
Marist and Lockport have similar records, but it’s Marist with the wins it can hang its hat on, beating Evanston, Centralia and Waukegan.
Brother Rice, Thornwood, Rich, Joliet West, Lincoln-Way Central and Bloom are all jockeying for the next six spots. There were plenty of head-to-head opportunities. But those still didn’t sort it out definitively.
Check out this mess: Thornwood beat Brother Rice; Brother Rice beat Joliet West; Rich beat Bloom; Thornwood and Rich have split; Bloom beat Thornwood, then Thornwood beat Bloom; Lincoln-Way Central beat Bloom; Thornwood beat Joliet West.
As a result, it goes to win totals, schedule strength and how a team is currently playing.
Bloom and Rich, despite how dangerous both could be in the regional as teams hovering around the .500 mark, simply have compiled too many losses. They drop as a result.
Brother Rice’s schedule has been daunting. They’ve played top 15 teams Neuqua Valley, St. Ignatius, Loyola, DePaul and Marist, and played them all tough with the exception of the DePaul loss. The Crusaders, who have beaten Joliet West, Oswego and St. Laurence, still sits with as many wins as any of these six teams in contention for the No. 4 seed.
Lincoln-Way Central has put together a solid season while quietly playing a competitive schedule with seven games against ranked teams. They’ve beaten both Bloom and Lockport, while playing Homewood-Flossmoor, Oswego East and Kankakee tough in losses.
The No. 6 seed comes down to what have you done for me lately?
After a hot 11-2 start, Thornwood is just 6-7 since. And it did beat Joliet West way back in November by a whopping 28 points. But it’s a different Joliet West team, one that would very likely be favored to beat Thornwood today in a rematch. Joliet West is 11-1 since Christmas with the lone loss to highly-ranked Bolingbrook in overtime.
And, finally, Rich has beaten Bloom twice.
Fremd Sectional
1. Fremd (22-2)
2. Palatine (23-4)
3. Hersey (17-6)
4. Stevenson (17-8)
5. Rolling Meadows (15-10)
6. Hoffman Estates (26-3)
7. Lake Zurich (12-13)
8. Schaumburg (17-10)
Overview: The two rivals, Palatine and Fremd, are fighting for the top seed. They have split their two games. Palatine won 53-37 in the December matchup and Fremd won the most recent game, 65-63, in overtime.
Fremd has that recent win and the more high-profile wins outside of the Mid-Suburban League, including victories over Evanston, New Trier, Glenbrook North and York. That gets the Vikings the top seed in their own sectional.
Palatine slots in at No. 2, thanks to demolishing Stevenson and recently avenging its earlier loss to Hersey with a 50-37 victory in January.
Stevenson has been up and down. The Patriots own an impressive late January win over Waukegan, yet their seed has taken a hit of late. They’ve lost to both Lake Forest and Prospect, teams with a combined record of 20-30, along with losses to ranked teams Warren and York by a combined 55 points in the past week.
Rolling Meadows has established credibility in its 15-10 season with wins over Hersey, Riverside-Brookfield and Lyons while playing nine games this season against ranked teams, including one-possession losses to St. Patrick, Fremd and Palatine. The Mustangs deserve the No. 5 seed and could make an argument for a No. 4 seed.
By looking at just the won-loss totals, outsiders will believe Hoffman Estates deserves better. While the Hawks have certainly enjoyed a fun season with a glitzy record, it likely doesn’t warrant higher than a No. 6 seed.
Hoffman Estates played the No. 3 seed, Hersey, and lost by 26 points. And among the 26 wins, Hoffman Estates has beaten just five teams with a winning record, none of which is a 20-win team yet: Notre Dame, Sandburg, Vernon Hills, Schaumburg and Jones.
When you get past the top five or six seeds, the sectional nosedives quickly. But you have to take into consideration the schedule Lake Zurich has played in comparison to the teams still looking to be seeded in the top eight.
The Bears, who did beat Mount Carmel and Glenbrook North, have played 10 ranked teams this season and are going to be a dangerously low-seeded team here.
Loyola Sectional
1. DePaul Prep (22-3)
2. Evanston (22-5)
3. Loyola (21-6)
4. New Trier (21-7)
5. St. Patrick (21-4)
6. Lincoln Park (17-7)
7. Glenbrook North (19-8)
8. Niles North (20-7)
Overview: DePaul moves up to Class 4A this year and embeds itself in a very strong sectional where six other teams have been ranked at some point this season. But the Rams have one loss all season to an in-state team: top-ranked Benet. DePaul is an obvious No. 1 seed.
Then there are four teams realistically jockeying for spots two through five. There is some head-to-head and schedule strength to sort this out as their win totals are all similar.
Evanston is playing well. There was the weekend blowout loss to highly-ranked Warren, but the Wildkits have won 12 of their last 14 games and have beaten New Trier and Loyola along the way. Coach Mike Ellis’ team should be the No. 2 seed.
Loyola beat New Trier. Even if that win came way back in November, it’s a decision-maker when you’re splitting hairs between the two.
New Trier is an enigma when it comes to the seeds, because four of its seven losses came with star player Christopher Kirkpatrick injured. The Trevians have now won seven of eight but Kirkpatrick is still out and his return remains in question.
St. Patrick had its chance to muck things up in this seeding process last week. But the loss to Loyola did them in when it comes to moving up the seeding ladder.
Plus, the Shamrocks, a third-place finisher in Class 3A last season who have moved up to 4A this year, are just 1-4 against ranked teams. Loyola, meanwhile, has gone 5-5 in facing 10 ranked teams and New Trier is 7-6 against teams that have been ranked this season.
That leaves Lincoln Park and the three Central Suburban League teams that have all squared off with each other.
Lincoln Park has played the toughest schedule of the four teams contending for the No. 6 seed. The Lions just picked up a rock solid win over Peoria Richwoods over the weekend, and they’ve played several others, including Bolingbrook, Young and Mount Carmel, very tough.
What to do with the three CSL teams, Maine East, Glenbrook North and Niles North, with nearly identical records?
Anyway you look at it here, they settle in at No. 7, No. 8 and No. 9 in this sectional. But none of the three have signature, difference-making wins to solidify the No. 7 seed.
Surprising Maine East has an argument for the No. 7 seed as it has something neither Glenbrook North or Niles North have: wins over both. But Maine East, which did also lose to Niles North early in the season, has played the softest schedule of the three and has suffered the worst losses. The Monday loss to Maine West didn’t help.
Several of Maine East’s losses have come to the likes of Maine West, Sandburg, Vernon Hills, Notre Dame and Prospect. Glenbrook North, meanwhile, has lost games to teams that are or were ranked at some point this season: Hersey, Fremd, Stevenson, New Trier and Evanston.
And if Niles North were able to pull off an upset Tuesday night over highly-ranked Fremd (22-2), you can justifiably flip Niles North and GBN.
Bolingbrook Sectional
1. Benet (26-1)
2. Neuqua Valley (26-1)
3. Bolingbrook (20-7)
4. Downers Grove South (20-5)
5. Oswego (19-8)
6. Naperville North (21-6)
7. Oswego East (17-9)
8. Waubonsie Valley (15-10)
Overview: Can a sectional be top heavy while also having depth? Sure. This sectional provides both as the top three teams — Benet, Neuqua and Bolingbrook — have been highly-ranked all season and boast the best individual talent in the sectional. Then the next group of six or seven teams offers balanced depth.
Benet and Neuqua have sparkling records. But Benet is clearly deserving of the top seed with the schedule it has faced and the wins it has secured, beating Curie, DePaul, Loyola, St. Patrick, Warren and two quality out-of-state teams from St. Louis, Chaminade and DeSmet.
Neuqua Valley’s big win over Bolingbrook back in January secures the No. 2 seed.
While Bolingbrook, Downers Grove South and Naperville North all have similar records, don’t let those records confuse you. Neither Downers South or Naperville North have played anywhere near the schedule Bolingbrook has this season.
That brings us to the most important two seeds in the sectional: No. 4 and No. 5. These two teams should be able to battle it out for a regional title while avoiding the three highly-ranked teams until the sectional. And it really works out nicely when you examine things.
Downers Grove South is the hottest of the remaining teams, winning 11 straight, though the streak doesn’t exactly include ranked teams or heavy hitters among the wins. The Mustangs, though, deserve to slide into one of the two coveted seeds and, specifically, the No. 4 seed due to its win over Oswego in December.
Oswego is also playing very well. The Panthers were 5-5 following a loss to Downers Grove South. But since then they’ve gone 14-3. Plus, the January win over Naperville North proved to be the most important win of the season for the Panthers, netting them the fifth seed.
The other two contenders are Naperville North and Oswego East, a team that has by far played the toughest schedule among these five teams. But again, DGS has the win over Oswego and Oswego has wins in the second half of the season over both Naperville North and Oswego East.
This should all work itself out nicely. Look for a Downers South at Oswego regional championship game.
The 8-10 seeds are really just a toss-up among Yorkville, Plainfield East and Waubonsie Valley. They’re all stumbling a bit in the last week. Yorkville did beat Plainfield East. But among common opponents, Waubonsie Valley has fared slightly better.
They’ll all be battling for the unenviable task of squaring off with Benet or Neuqua for a regional title.
Rockton Hononegah Sectional
Sub-Sectional A
1. Warren (24-2)
2. Waukegan (19-7)
3. Libertyville (14-9)
4. McHenry (18-9)
Overview: No drama here for seeding week.
Warren is the overwhelming No. 1 seed, while Waukegan has beaten Libertyville twice this season. These two should meet up for a third time in the sectional semifinals.
When it comes to McHenry and Libertyville, it’s Libertyville that’s clearly played the better schedule. Libertyville beat Stevenson, while McHenry lost to Stevenson 59-27.
Sub-Sectional B
1. Rockford Guilford (20-5)
2. Rockford Auburn (20-7)
3. Rockton Hononegah (22-5)
4. DeKalb (11-17)
Overview: Rockford Guilford has beaten both Auburn and Hononegah twice and is the team that is lining up to play Warren in the sectional championship.
With a resounding win over Hononegah in January, Rockford Auburn nabs the second seed.