The injury status of fullback Robbie Ouzts can have a major impact on whether the Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX.
Ouzts, who is questionable to suit up at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday, February 8 because of a neck problem, would help the Seahawks exploit a key weakness. An under-the-radar frailty the otherwise defensively dominant Patriots have shown against a certain personnel grouping.
The potential matchup advantage for the Seahawks is spelled out by Brian Nemhauser of Hawk Blogger. It has to do with how many running backs and tight ends offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak puts into the formation.
Nemhauser explained how the Seahawks’ “bread-and-butter remains 12-personnel. They were the second-best EPA team in that grouping this season, and were equally likely to run or pass, making it tough on defenses to key on their tendencies. New England has been very good at defending 11 and 12, ranking in the top ten against both. They struggled against 21, which makes the potential absence of Ouzts a bigger issue.”
Using 21 personnel, two running backs and one tight end, could be the key to freeing Kenneth Walker III to take over this Super Bowl and increase his leverage ahead of 2026 NFL free agency.
Fortunately, Kubiak and the Seahawks don’t necessarily need to rely on 2025 NFL draft fifth-round pick Ouzts to follow this plan.
Robbie Ouzts Availability Key to Under-the-Radar Super Bowl Star
Walker has gotten surprisingly modest attention during Super Bowl week, but the running back will be key to deciding the game. He’s been electric during the playoffs, and getting Walker on track early will allow the Seahawks to create play-action passing opportunities for quarterback Sam Darnold.
This combination is the foundation of Kubiak’s offense, but having Walker take over won’t be easy against these Patriots. Not when defensive tackle Milton Williams is on the other side of the ball.
Williams’ presence makes a significant difference to how well the Pats defend the run. Numbers from Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points show “The Patriots’ defense against inside (A/B gap) runs in… Six games without Milton Williams: – 4.94 YPC (Worst in the NFL) – 32.5% stuff rate (Worst by a full 10%) 14 games with Williams: – 3.05 YPC (Best of the past FIVE YEARS) – 49.0% stuff rate (3rd-best).”
Although the Seahawks bounce many of their runs outside, controlling Williams and fellow D-tackle Christian Barmore will still be crucial to making sure Walker isn’t stopped at source.
The challenge of winning the middle of the line of scrimmage will be easier with Ouzts on the field. He’s a 275-pounder who’s fixed the Seahawks’ running game at times this season.
Ouzts has often been seen as a potential X-factor in big games, although the Seahawks haven’t always turned to the rookie for help. They didn’t during the NFC Championship Game against the Los Angeles Rams, when Ouzts didn’t see the field.
A repeat of this absentee act may be inevitable when Ouzts’ injury status remains “questionable” after “limited participation” in practice ahead of the Super Bowl, per Seahawks.com Senior Reporter John Boyle.
At least the Seahawks have some alternatives to putting Ouzts ahead of Walker.
Seahawks Have Credible Alternatives for Key Matchup vs. Patriots
One obvious alternative is Ouzts’ backup Brady Russell, whose presence means “injury insurance isn’t really needed,” according to SB Nation’s Field Gulls.
Being able to call on Russell meant the Seahawks were free to elevate a Super Bowl-winning running back from the practice squad. The move can support Walker and create a potent double act out of the backfield, but both backs will still need expert lead-blocking.
Russell may not provide it, but veteran tight end Eric Saubert can. He’s a natural and selfless blocker, one who can be moved behind the line to operate as a de facto fullback.
Keeping Saubert on the move would let Kubiak disguise his offense pre-snap. Simply by initially showing 12 personnel, a two-tight end set, then switching to 21 and giving the Patriots a problem they’ve struggled to solve.
Doing so would not only give Walker more room to run. It could also allow Darnold to take some deep shots off play action earlier than expected on normal running downs.
The same things can work with Ouzts in the lineup, but the Seahawks can still lean on 21 personnel without him.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Seahawks Get Super Bowl Warning About Robbie Ouzts appeared first on Heavy Sports.