Connor Bedard is on pace for a 60-point season after missing six weeks with a broken jaw.
Rick Scuteri/AP
LAS VEGAS — Jeff Davis saw 74.5 on Connor Bedard’s preseason points total, for his rookie Blackhawks campaign, and quickly nabbed under at -115.
Davis, the ace Circa Sports puck oddsman, learned long ago that taking under is the smart way to play many player propositions. At Caesars, he had concocted yardage totals for NFL players.
“You’d make a number for a full season, then you’d chop out some because if it’s going to go over, everything has to go right,” Davis said. “If it’s going to go under, very little has to go wrong.
“Or, like in the case of Bedard, somebody misses six weeks of the NHL season. You just won’t make your projections.”
Bedard had accumulated 33 points (15 goals, 18 assists) in 39 games when, in New Jersey on Jan. 5, Devils defenseman Brendan Smith smacked into him, breaking his jaw.
Bedard returned Feb. 15. Through Tuesday, he had scored twice while doling out eight assists, all of which translates to a 60-point season.
During the preseason, that 74.5 had been whittled by five points by the time I spoke with Davis, and it was further shaved by savvy bettors who today must be licking their chops.
THE SPIRAL
With the Stanley Cup playoffs around the corner, I rang Davis to review some of his preseason NHL prognostications for this column and to peek at postseason possibilities.
He believed playing alongside former NHL MVP Taylor Hall would be invaluable for Bedard, but Hall was lost to season-ending knee surgery in November.
“And it just seemed to pile up,” Davis said. “Seth Jones has missed some time, as has Anthony Beauvillier . . . the whole Corey Perry incident.”
The Blackhawks had obtained the 38-year-old wing from the Lightning in June for a draft pick. An undisclosed incident with a team employee in Columbus, though, compelled the Hawks to cut him.
“They got Perry because they’d be able to flip him at the [trade] deadline for assets, then whatever went on, went on,” Davis said. “They terminate his contract, so they don’t get an asset for him.”
The Blackhawks (16-42-5, 37 points, through Tuesday) sit in the Central Division basement.
“Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, but there should be a positive long-term view on them,” Davis said. “They figure to get another high draft pick, and the sky’s the limit for Bedard. They have a lot going for them.
“Fans just won’t see it for a couple of years.”
OTHER ACTION
Three of Davis’ team-under actions were Vegas (105 points), Washington (88) and St. Louis (86.5). Through Tuesday, those squads were on pace for 97, 89 and 89 points, respectively.
He also paid -200 on the Blues (32-27-3) to not make the playoffs; their 67 points place them six points behind a postseason spot.
Blues goalie Jordan Binnington entered the week 22-16-3 with a below-average save percentage (.912) and goals-against average (2.83).
“I can’t believe their record is as good as it is, because their underlying numbers are bad,” Davis said. “But you have Binnington playing great, and they have some good shooting luck.”
A 47-year-old Massachusetts native, Davis believes his two St. Louis tickets will ultimately cash.
He took over on Arizona at 73.5 points. And the Coyotes, who play before a capacity crowd of 4,600 inside Mullett Arena on the Arizona State campus, were on pace for a 73-point season after Tuesday’s loss to the Hawks.
Arizona won 23 of its first 42 games.
“A guaranteed winner, till they lost 14 in a row,” Davis said, “and I’m on the other side.”
With the retirement of longtime linemate Patrice Bergeron, Davis favored Boston right wing David Pastrnak to collect fewer than 95.5 points. The Czech sharpshooter, though, had 90 (38 goals, 52 assists) through 63 games, a 117-point pace.
“And at the start of the season, they had him and [Brad] Marchand separated,” Davis said. “With new linemates, everything had to go right for him to get over. And, naturally, the guy’s been incredible, because he is [incredible].
“I’ll toss my ticket into the trash. That’s fine.”
LITTLE EVENTS
I coat-tailed Davis’ bullishness about the Rangers, but waited till Jan. 15 to finally nab 10-1 odds on them winning the Stanley Cup. I’ve also got 15-1 on Winnipeg.
Davis calls the Jets second-tier, “but [Connor] Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the league and that can win you a series. We’re in good with the Rangers. I think they’re just below that top tier of five teams.”
Pressed for his Final, right now, Davis tabs Florida (+650 at DraftKings) over Dallas (10-1) or Edmonton (+800). He includes Carolina (+900) and Colorado (+850) in that quintet.
Davis also knows the last 10 winners of the Presidents’ Trophy, earned by the NHL team with the most regular-season points, have failed to win the Stanley Cup.
“Florida trailed Boston 3-1 in last season’s first round. Marchand has a breakaway, with three seconds left in Game 5, to win the series, but Sergei Bobrovsky makes the save. Florida wins in overtime and takes Games 6 and 7.
“The Panthers play in the Stanley Cup Final.”
Vegas defeated battered-and-bruised Florida in five games to win the cup.
“If Marchand scores, the Bruins win that series. Then, who knows? Boston might be the Stanley Cup champion. Little individual events can change the course of everything.”