The San Jose Sharks are set to turn their attention to a Will Smith contract extension, according to reporter Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now.
Smith is entering the final year of his entry-level contract. He became extension-eligible on July 1. That contract certainly won’t approach Celebrini’s historic five-year, $94 million ($18.8 million average annual value) deal. Still, Smith has produced well in his first two seasons in the NHL. Consequently, the timing in the wake of the groundbreaking Leo Carlsson offer sheet has never been more important.
The Sharks hope the time is right this summer to finalize Will Smith’s contract extension.
Will Smith Riding Shotgun
You can use whichever cliché you like — riding shotgun, the Robin to his Batman, et al. — to describe what Will Smith means to Macklin Celebrini. The two players played together for 1124:58 last season in all situations. The Sharks outscored their opposition 83-47. When those two weren’t on the ice, San Jose lost 196-112 in all situations and 125-86 at five-on-five. Needless to say, they’re pretty good together.
Smith finished his second pro season with a very solid 59 points in 69 games. Though he was underwater in some advanced metrics, he was a positive player relative to the rest of his team. His two-way game needs some polish, but he’s already one of the league’s best offensive players at age 21.
He and Celebrini are extremely close on- and off-ice. It would be wise to lock Smith up for as long as possible.
Comparables for a Will Smith Contract Extension
Things get a little tricky here in the NHL’s new landscape. Young stars are signing contracts that walk them to free agency in their prime seasons. AFP Analytics projected a seven-year deal for Macklin Celebrini. They projected eight years for Connor Bedard and Leo Carlsson. All three players signed for five years, walking them to unrestricted free agency at the absolute zenith of their value.
In terms of average value, AFP Analytics was too conservative on Celebrini by 10.5 percent. They were too conservative on Bedard’s extension by 21.3 percent. AFP underestimated Carlsson by 57.3 percent. For the sake of this exercise, that constitutes an outlier since he was signed to an offer sheet by another team, requiring Anaheim to match. That, naturally, raised Carlsson’s price.
It’s safe to assume that the changing landscape means that AFP Analytics, a well-respected sports consulting firm, was too conservative in their projections. They projected a Will Smith contract extension for seven years at $9,759,664.71 annually. Taking the Celebrini 10.5 percent number as an example, that would put Smith’s next deal at $10,784,422.50.
For simplicity, that’s around $10.8 million per season, but over five years instead of seven. The new Will Smith deal could be a little higher if San Jose tries to entice Smith to sign longer than Celebrini.
Others in the NHL are Waiting on Smith
The Ivan Demidov contract extension, eight years with an average value of $9.15 million, could be a starting point for a conversation about Smith. It looks like a bargain, but that was also a deal where AFP Analytics came in slightly under on the average value (9.9 percent). Admittedly, they expected Demidov to sign for one fewer season than he did, which could account for that discrepancy.
Meanwhile, the Will Smith contract extension very likely will set the bar for several other players. He’s likely the next-best extension-eligible player entering the final year of their entry-level contract. Marco Kasper in Detroit, Matthe Savoie in Edmonton, Oliver Kapanen in Montreal, Gabe Perreault in New York, Matvei Michkov in Philadelphia, Jimmy Snuggerud in St. Louis and Ryan Leonard in Washington all have agents watching this negotiation with interest.
The term and value will figure to be major points of interest around the league in this rapidly changing landscape.
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