The San Diego Padres rotation is one of the team’s biggest question marks heading into the 2026 MLB season. In free agency, the team lost starting pitcher Dylan Cease, who started 65 games for the Padres over the past two seasons. Additionally, veteran pitcher Yu Darvish is set to miss the entire season after undergoing elbow surgery and is also considering retirement.
Fortunately, the Padres should get a much-needed boost to its rotation with the return of former All-Star pitcher Joe Musgrove. Musgrove, who missed the entire 2025 season after elbow surgery, is set to pitch in a game setting for the first time since 2024 on March 4 against the Great Britain team in an exhibition.
San Diego Padres’ Joe Musgrove
Musgrove dealt with injuries in his last two seasons as a starter, as he failed to reach 100 innings pitched in the 2023 and 2024 seasons. Ultimately, that resulted in Musgrove being unable to finish a game in the postseason as he departed with an elbow injury after 3.2 innings against the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the 2024 Wild Card Series.
Despite the nagging injuries Musgrove dealt with, he was still a reliable option in the Padres rotation as he posted a 3.47 ERA in 197 innings in those two seasons. Previously, he pitched 181 innings with a 2.93 ERA in 2022, which resulted in the first All-Star selection of his career.
“He’s doing really well,” Stammen said of Musgrove’s performance this spring. “Every time I watch him throw, I’m expecting his stuff to be down a tick, and it hasn’t been. It’s almost been, like, a little bit better.”
Musgrove has faced hitters three times this spring, including a 36-pitch performance in a simulated game.
Expectations for Joe Musgrove
Despite still recovering from his elbow surgery, the Padres will likely need Joe Musgrove at full strength toward the second half of the season if they plan for their starting rotation to be a strength
However, Musgrove himself is not that sure that he can be the guy he was in the 2022 season. While speaking on the Friar Territory podcast, Musgrove detailed that the expectation that he could pitch over 180 innings and make 32 starts, as he did in 2022, is not realistic. He also predicted that “he would likely be on the IL for the sake of rest and recovery at some point during the season, if not to start the season then at some point.”
Gaslamp Ball writer Cherri Bell detailed how FanGraphs’ projections for Musgrove seem to agree with the expectations the Padres pitcher has for himself. Bell wrote, “Joe Musgrove is viewed conservatively in his first season back after UCL surgery. He projects to 16 starts and 91 innings with a 3.87 ERA and 1.4 WAR.”
Overall, projections are not favorable to the Padres pitching staff as no pitcher on the team is currently projected to have an ERA below 3.55. Last season, Nick Pivetta was the Padres’ best pitcher as he had a 2.87 ERA in 181.2 innings. FanGraphs projections do not seem to believe he will replicate that success as they project him to have a 3.87 ERA in 156 innings.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post San Diego Padres Pitcher Set to Make First Start Since 2024 MLB Season appeared first on Heavy Sports.