The San Diego Padres are still right in the thick of the National League wild card race, but just have not been their usual selves in 2026. At 43-39, they are on the outside looking in, sitting a half-game behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
There have been a lot of things that haven’t gone according to plan, with slugger Manny Machado having some struggles at the plate. San Diego could easily still make the playoffs, as they have the past two years. However, they could just as easily miss.
Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report gave a few hot takes on how the rest of the 2026 season will go, and one of them was that the Padres will indeed fall short of the postseason.
“Even despite their recent course correction, the Padres woke up on Sunday morning tied with the Miami Marlins for the National League’s third and final wild-card spot. Both are now chasing the St. Louis Cardinals, and it’s a race the Padres probably can’t win,” Rymer wrote.
“Because of their -13 run differential, the Padres’ record should be more like 40-42. They’re last in MLB in scoring, and any notion that their pitching can sustain them inevitably collides with the reality that they have a total Franken-rotation.
“And how, exactly, are the Padres going to get meaningfully better? AJ Preller needs to add both impact arms and impact bats at the deadline, and either would be a tall task given his farm system might be the worst of any NL team.”
Things Not Looking Up for Padres
The Padres still have a very strong roster that can make it to the postseason, but they won 93 games in 2024 and 89 last year. This team is not currently playing at a 90-win pace, so they will need to fix some things if they want to get to October.
Their biggest issues are their farm system and the fact that Machado has struggled so badly this year. The seven-time All-Star has hit 15 home runs and driven in 44 runs, but is slashing just .188/.272/.392 with a .665 OPS.
If he cannot turn his season around, then perhaps the Padres will find themselves sitting out the postseason. They are 1o games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, so the wild card is probably their best bet. It will be interesting to see if they can keep pace with the Cardinals and ultimately bounce them out of the wild card spot.
What Could Padres Struggles Mean
It’s important to note the condition their farm system is currently in. They gave up a lot of top prospects last summer to land Mason Miller at the trade deadline. Perhaps if they can’t stay in the mix, they could choose to sell at the deadline rather than buy.
That might be a good way for them to strengthen their farm system and load up on some prospects for the future, because what they have right now won’t be enough for them to land a big name in a blockbuster trade.
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