To QB or not QB, that is the question.
The Broncos have not been to the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50. They are saddled with seven straight losing seasons. A confluence of factors have contributed to this malaise, but none more than dismal play from the game’s most important position.
The Broncos have been awful or searching at quarterback. Sometimes both. Never neither since Peyton Manning retired.
Is there an answer available in the draft, roughly three weeks away? And is the solution going all-in or exercising patience later in the first round or on the second day for Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.? Those two are jostling to become the fifth quarterback taken, and deserve our attention.
Most mocks project that three or four will come off the board in the first five picks. The Bears, we can all agree, are taking USC’s Caleb Williams. Then it becomes interesting. Will Washington select Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy? What about the Patriots? Are they snatching up one of the remaining two?
Minnesota remains the wild card. Hard to find a single Purple People Eater who doesn’t think the Vikings will trade up for a quarterback, using the 11th and 23rd overall picks. That leaves a single player at four. I have made it clear that if Daniels is there, he is worth the Broncos refinancing their mortgage yet again.
He could turn an acoustic offense electric. He delivers explosive plays with his arm and feet. He gives off a Lamar Jackson vibe. Those who don’t like him provide Justin Field comparisons. I don’t agree.
One thing is certain: The Broncos have angered their fan base with years of uneven and incompetent offense. It has created a warped sense of reality that one player can clean up this mess. In fact, it is easier to argue the Broncos are not quarterback-ready, that their roster needs replenishing in the draft, so they cannot afford to surrender any more picks.
And that is why we must keep Nix and Penix on the radar. Both will be on the board at No. 12. And should be there in the middle of the round. One could fall into Day Two. Broncos coach Sean Payton favors aggression, cares little about public perception. If the right quarterback is available in the top 5, I have zero doubt he will happily trade draft picks.
With no guarantee the draft falls their way or that they can find a trade partner with New England and Arizona, what should we know about Nix and Penix? I asked Brock Huard, a former Washington Huskies star, Pac-12 diehard and host of a morning radio show in Seattle. He lives in the draft ecosystem, either through watching tape or talking frequently with those who do for a living.
First, my view on this: If the Broncos are going to select a quarterback at 12, then he should project as a top-15 player at his position within three years. Penix made Sunday throws on Saturday for two seasons at Washington. Nix reinvented himself at Oregon as efficient, smart, putting on a clinic throwing slants.
Penix’s easy cheese arm strength and athleticism give him an upper half of the league ceiling. Nix, for me, has a high floor, but lower upside. In fact, if the Broncos like Nix I would trade back into the mid-20s, scoop up a second-round pick, and take Nix in that range. Even then, it leaves me uneasy when there will be so many more talented players on the board at other positions.
“Penix is going to go in the first round,” Huard insisted. “Critics talk about how he didn’t improvise enough and his health. Those two are connected. The reason he didn’t escape and run is because he wanted to avoid injuries and sacks. And you put on his tape, and you can find 50 NFL throws from deep overs to daggers to in cuts, out cuts and go routes.”
The system demanded it and featured pro tackles and skill players. It included pre-snap motion and high-level concepts that his former coach Ryan Grubb is taking to the Seahawks as their new offensive coordinator. Penix is also left-handed, meaning his arrival in Denver would require massive improvement from Mike McGlinchey as his blindside protector. Huard sees a fit with Penix and Payton.
“I do because there is a lot of volume. Sean asks a lot of his quarterback. There is a lot to process. Grubb coached Penix really hard,” Huard explained. “If you want to spray the ball over the field and get someone that can make all the throws, Penix can do it. Just watch his semifinal game vs. Texas.”
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Nix threw for 74 touchdowns and 10 interceptions for Oregon in two seasons. He ran the offense with wisdom and precision. But his three years at Auburn created a record scratch for me (39 touchdowns, 16 picks) as he was benched multiple times. I like Nix. I don’t like him in the top 15 when there is a chance his upside is pedestrian NFL starter, trusted backup.
“Nix has a quick release. He’s accurate, throws a nice ball. I like his frame — and that’s a very real concern with Penix — toughness and grit,” Huard said. “But he has average arm strength and throwing into NFL windows on tight and intermediate throws, I haven’t seen him do it consistently.”
This quarterback draft for the Broncos feels like solving a Rubik’s Cube. Their first-round pick is far enough back to require an all-in investment to move up. And if they stay put, is it worth taking the fifth one on the board?
If the question at No. 12 is Nix or Penix? My answer is neither. Trade back, beef up the roster and answer the quarterback question next offseason.
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