Keeler: You ready for a little Madness? Over the last 13 NCAA men’s hoops tournaments, on 11 occasions, a team that was sent to the First Four in Dayton went on to win at least one more game in the Big Dance. Five times in 13 tourneys, a team flipped that little junket to southern Ohio into at least two more victories and a Sweet 16 berth. History says somebody’s coming out of Dayton and busting brackets this weekend. Why can’t it be Tad Boyle’s Buffs or Niko Medved’s Rams? CU’s one of the hottest teams in the country, winner of eight of its last nine, thanks to Tristan da Silva, Luke O’Brien, and that killer outside-inside combo of KJ Simpson and Eddie Lampkin Jr. For the Rams, the fact that Isaiah Stevens is a guard with five years of starting experience makes him, by precedent, one of the most dangerous players in all of Bracketville. So of our “Big Two” men’s hoops programs, which one do you think is most likely to use Dayton as a launching pad to the second weekend of The Dance?
Renck: Entry into the Big Dance was supposed to be a celebration, but morphed into frustration Sunday night. Because of five bid stealers — sounds like a “Realtors Gone Wild” DVD — the Buffs and Rams landed in the First Four. It’s an insulting term given their status as the last four teams invited. CSU got a sushi raw deal. Still, I like CU more than the Rams to make a run for two reasons: Simpson is a star who can create his own shots, and the Buffs are facing a team in Boise State that has never won a tournament game. As in ever (0-for-9). The Buffs are 2-5 in the tournament under coach Tad Boyle. This is his most talented team — he has three NBA-level players in Cody Williams, Simpson and da Silva. No excuses. The Buffs face an angry Boise squad — the Broncos don’t just have a chip on their shoulder, more like the entire can of Pringles. But the Buffs are simmering. They need to win this game or it will be hard to frame this as anything other than a disappointing season. As for the next game, well …
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Keeler: For all the love that Simpson’s gotten for carrying this offense for long stretches, CU’s at its best when it gets handsy defensively. The Buffs are 12-2 in the 14 games this season in which they’ve collected seven steals or more. Matchup-wise, Boise State might play straight into Ralphie’s happy hooves — in their last 17 games, the Broncos are averaging 10.11 turnovers per tilt, committing 12 or more giveaways five different times (and posting a 2-3 mark in the process). Boise heads into Bracketville ranked No. 132 in the country in turnovers per 100 plays (14.1). Florida, which awaits the winner of Buffs-Broncos, checked in at No. 156 nationally (14.5).
Renck: I have a simple question. Were the Mountain West games past the committee’s bedtime? The Rams deserved a No. 8 seed, but the lone team that received any respect was San Diego State. I have no doubt that this slight will motivate CSU. The problem is not with emotion, but the matchup. Virginia is a gear-grinding team. Its mascot is a Cavalier. Except in basketball, it’s a sloth. The Rams played in the mud vs. Air Force, but Virginia is a different animal. A sloth.
Keeler: CSU is due for a run, and the team that kicked so much tail in late November and December is in there, somewhere, just waiting to break out. But much as I love the 6-foot Stevens’ game, his moxie, his clutch gene and his guts, I don’t love his length. Virginia’s got a senior point man of its own in Reece Beekman, who stands 6-3. The average height of the Cavaliers’ top seven guards is 6-5. You can just about picture coach Tony Bennett throwing the biggest defenders in his arsenal at Stevens to try and smother the metaphorical head of the snake. The Rams’ offense is painful to watch during its infamous cold-shooting stretches, and if there’s one thing a Bennett team loves to do, it’s accelerate and amplify pain.
Renck: There is nothing like March Madness. And the Buffs and Rams have forced us to pay attention to something besides are own office brackets. But it feels like March Sadness is on the way. I don’t see either team making a run. The Rams deserved better than the 68th pole position. This where my conflict exists. I like CU more to win its first game, but I believe CSU has a better chance to upset Texas if the Rams advance. Florida is a challenge for the Buffs. The Gators reached the SEC title game before coughing up fumes. Yes, they are vulnerable. They lost center Micah Handlogten to a broken leg on Sunday, compromising their depth. A CU upset depends solely on the inside-out game of Lampkin and the guards, and the Gators clanking 3s like they did in their last game (1-for-13). That happens in Boulder, but is unlikely in Indianapolis.
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