The Detroit Red Wings have seemingly instilled an annual ritual known as the March Collapse. Over the last few seasons, the club has faded down the stretch, essentially leaving them out of the playoff picture after a relatively strong first half of the season.
There have been questions about why this situation has happened. But no one has been able to really come up with a definitive answer.
Well, there might be one now.
A study published by the folks at Casino Guru looked at the NHL’s “Aggression Index”. In short, the index is an aggregate of various individual stats such as hits, majors, fights, penalty minutes, and suspension/fights, and built a score out of 100 to determine the league’s most aggressive teams.
Unsurprisingly, the Red Wings landed dead last in the league. Detroit accrued a score of 6.80 out of 100. In contrast, the top-ranked team, the Tampa Bay Lightning, racked up a score of 87.89.
To compound the situation, six Atlantic Division teams ranked in the top 10: The Lightning, Boston Bruins, Montreal Canadiens, Florida Panthers, Buffalo Sabres, and Ottawa Senators.
That fact shouldn’t be surprising, particularly with the tight-checking nature of hockey during the final weeks of the season. Teams begin to play “playoff-style” hockey late in the season, leading to much more aggressive matchups.
Lack of Aggression Not a Problem Early in Season
Early in the season, teams play a much more flowing style of hockey. During the first half of the season, it’s not uncommon for teams to dial down the hard-hitting approach. But once the second half begins, teams consistently ramp up the tough love, especially those teams vying for a playoff spot.
Coincidentally, that’s when the Red Wings begin to fade. This statement isn’t to say that the Red Wings are “weak”. It just paints a picture that the club might not necessarily be the most adept at handling a more physical style of play during the last third of the season.
So, would there be a solution to this issue? Yes, but it might not be quite so simple.
What to read next:
Red Wings Need More Intensity throughout Season
One of the characteristics of strong playoff teams is their intensity level. In fact, some teams, like the Vegas Golden Knights and Carolina Hurricanes, sort of hold back during the first half of the regular season, and gradually turn up the intensity as the season winds down.
By the time the playoffs come around, they’re ready to dial it up. Incidentally, the Hurricanes ranked 16th in the Aggression Index. But fans wouldn’t have believed that in the postseason. The Canes played a strong, physical game without any of the shenanigans that the Lightning or Panthers typically pull off.
So, that might be a lesson for the Red Wings. The team needs to balance its strong offensive play with meaningful aggression. Perhaps taking a page out of Carolina’s book could make sense.
Keeping things cool early in the season and then dialing them up later in the year could be the recipe to avoid another March Collapse. The good news is that the 2026-27 season won’t be as compressed as last year was.
So, the relatively looser schedule could help the Red Wings avoid another late-season meltdown.
Like HEAVY’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on HEAVY
The post Red Wings March Collapse Could Be Explained by This Metric appeared first on HEAVY.