The Las Vegas Raiders are almost certainly going to have a new starting quarterback in 2026. The Geno Smith experiment in 2025 was a disaster, and he’ll likely be released or traded.
The Raiders also hold the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which they are expected to use on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. In recent years, more and more quarterbacks have started as rookies, especially first-round picks.
Some teams like to ease their rookie quarterback along and not force them to start right out of the gate. The Raiders could be one of those teams. Smith would be the obvious candidate to start if that was the plan, but it sounds like that won’t happen. Vincent Bonsignore of the California Post thinks it’s more likely that Aidan O’Connell would start in Week 1 than Smith.
“It’s not going to be Geno,” Bonsignore wrote on X. “O’Connell is more than capable of holding it down if that is the Raiders’ approach.
“I’m not saying 2026 is meaningless to the Raiders; it’s vitally important in the whole scheme of things. But not in a ‘quick fix’ way. It’s about setting a real foundation for prolonged success.”
John Spytek Admits Not Wanting to Start Rookie
O’Connell likely should’ve gotten way more playing time last season. He was hurt to start the year, but when he was healthy, the team didn’t give him a single chance to start.
Kenny Pickett is a free agent and likely won’t be re-signed. Smith should be on his way out, so O’Connell might be the only other quarterback under contract for the Raiders.
Considering Mendoza’s experience at the college level, nobody would question the Raiders if they decided to start him immediately, but according to general manager John Spytek, he’d prefer not to rush the quarterback on the field.
“I think you want to limit the amount of pressure you have on that guy from the start,” Spytek said. “Now, if you have a young quarterback, I’m not necessarily in favor of running him out there right away, so (it’s important to have) another quality player that can play the quarterback position.”
It’s Going to Be Difficult to Keep Mendoza on the Bench
A big reason why first-round pick quarterbacks start as rookies is because of pressure from fans. They want to see the new quarterback play.
Using such a valuable draft pick on Mendoza only to keep him on the bench is going to be a tough sell, especially in favor of a player like O’Connell.
Now, perhaps the Raiders could bring back a guy like Derek Carr to start for the year, but even that would be hard to get excited about.
If Mendoza is the pick, he’s going to start at some point during the season. Holding him out for the first two or three games isn’t the worst strategy, but keeping him out for the whole season might be impossible unless he’s hurt. No matter what the Raiders want to do, Mendoza is likely the quarterback who gives them the best chance to win next season.
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