Another year, another upsetting end to a Toronto Maple Leafs season.
For the seventh time in the last eight campaigns, Toronto was eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs without making it past the first round. This time, it happened in Game 7 at the hands of the Boston Bruins, who beat the Leafs 2-1 in overtime on May 4.
The consensus belief among NHL insiders, including The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun, is that Toronto will endure changes this summer, most probably by firing head coach Sheldon Keefe but potentially by trading one of their four core forwards.
That said, the presence of no-move clauses (NMC) in the contracts of all superstar Leafs might make things difficult. If both sides, Toronto and Marner, can agree to a mutual part of ways, the forward might find it interesting to land with the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks.
That is what Bleacher Report’s Joe Yerdon suggested in a column published on May 5, where he listed the Blackhawks as a potential landing spot for Marner.
As Yerdon sees the situation, Chicago’s “moving prospects and/or a future first-round pick that should be pretty high” could “get the Leafs’ ears perked up.”
Will the Maple Leafs Break Core-Four Before 2024-25?
The Leafs are considered one of the best teams, at least on paper, on the forward front. They boast an impressive unit featuring Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander.
With a payroll north of $97 million through the 2024 playoffs more than $40 million devoted to those four players alone, according to PuckPedia, and another first-round exit, something has to give.
Marner will become an unrestricted free agent in July 2025 after the next season is over. He’s in possession of a full NMC, however, which means he can block any trade Toronto agrees to and enter UFA next year whether the Leafs want it or not.
“The stars are aligned for the Leafs to shake things up and move on from Marner,” Yerdon wrote in his article. “The 26-year-old has a full no-move clause, and with unrestricted free agency awaiting him, it’s a less-than-ideal situation for the Leafs.”
As Yerdon notes, Marner’s $10.9 million yearly salary, paired with his deal becoming an expiring one come puck drop next fall, could make for a tough sell in a trade.
Marner, however, is coming off a regular season in which he scored 85 points (26 goals, 59 assists) in 69 games to go with 3 points in 7 first-round postseason contests.
That full Marner package, considering both his contract and his production, could be solid enough to lure the Blackhawks.
Blackhawks Could Build Monster Forward Trio
“Chicago has oodles of cap space, and taking on Marner’s $10.9 million hit wouldn’t be a problem,” Yerdon explained when building his case. “Asking him to play with Bedard and maybe Celebrini might be an easy sell for him to waive his no-move clause.”
Yerdon is referencing Blackhawks rookie Connor Bedard, who is nearly a lock to win the Calder Trophy award given to the rookie of the year in the NHL, and also the consensus-best prospect for the upcoming draft, Boston University forward Macklin Celebrini.
The Blackhawks already count the former as one of their own, but in order to get Celebrini they will need to win the draft lottery scheduled to take place on Tuesday, May 7.
Chicago has the second-largest odds for landing the No. 1 pick (13.5%) only trailing the San Jose Sharks (25.5%). Whoever wins the lottery is guaranteed to pick Celebrini coming out of college.
“[Marner’s] all-around abilities to score points and defend well would go over huge in the Windy City,” Yerdon added in his proposal, teasing an unstoppable trio comprised of Marner, Bedard, and Celibrini if all goes according to plan.
What Could the Leafs Ask Chicago For in a Mitch Marner Trade?
With their forward lines already set and under contract for many years at top-dollar value, the Leafs have a much more pressing need to bolster their defensive corps. That’s what Yerdon thinks and what he believes Toronto will try to get in return for Marner.
“Toronto, ideally, would land a No. 1 defenseman in any trade for Marner,” Yerdon wrote.
That said, Yerdon doesn’t believe Chicago would be able to trade No. 1 defenseman Seth Jones to the Leafs, noting that the blueliner also has a no-move clause he’d need to waive to facilitate a trade.
“Moving Marner and taking on Seth Jones (who also has a no-move clause) and his $9.5 million cap hit through 2029-2030 is probably not going to work,” Yerdon wrote, adding that trading Jones away is “not a hope that’s going to be fulfilled by Chicago.”
Perhaps Toronto is happy with landing a few younger prospects from Chicago’s farm system and a few draft picks, but with the Leafs sitting right in the middle of their window of contention it’s hard to find that too appealing for them if they want to shuffle their roster ahead of next season.
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