FanGraphs released its 2026 preseason projections, and the Los Angeles Dodgers sit alone at the top with a staggering 28.4% chance to win the World Series. That number nearly triples the Atlanta Braves‘ odds at 10.2%, creating one of the widest gaps between first and second in recent projection history.
FanGraphs is one of baseball’s premier advanced analytics platforms used by fans, media, and front offices across MLB. The site offers detailed player statistics, projection systems, and team analysis that have become the industry standard for evaluating player performance and team projections
The analytics site projects Los Angeles to win 99.6 games with a 99.1% chance of reaching the playoffs. No other team in baseball breaks 11% to win it all.
FanGraphs simulates the entire MLB season thousands of times using player performance data, roster construction, and strength of schedule to calculate championship probabilities. A 28% chance means the Dodgers won the World Series in roughly 28 out of every 100 simulations—overwhelming favorite territory.
FanGraphs Projects the Los Angeles Dodgers to Win 2026 World Series
The gap between Los Angeles and second-place Atlanta is larger than the gap between Atlanta and the ninth-place Phillies at 4.2%.
Behind the Braves, the New York Mets sit at 7.7%, followed by a tie between the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees at 6.1% each. The Boston Red Sox round out the top five at 5.1%.
Here’s the wild part. The Dodgers, Braves, and Mets combine for 46.3% of all World Series probability. FanGraphs projects nearly a coin flip that one of those three National League powers wins it all.
Los Angeles’ projected 99.6 wins would be one of the strongest regular seasons in recent history. The roster construction—elite pitching depth plus an All-Star-stacked lineup—gives them the kind of championship runway that projection systems love.
Mariners, Yankees Lead American League at 6%
The American League looks far more balanced. Seattle and New York tie atop the AL at 6.1% each, with the Red Sox (5.1%) and Toronto Blue Jays (4.7%) close behind. Detroit surprisingly cracks 4.2% after their 2025 postseason run.
Seattle’s 86.3 projected wins come from elite pitching and that All-Star-heavy lineup they just assembled. The Mariners carry a 71.3% playoff shot and a 52.1% chance of winning the AL West.
The Yankees project to 86 wins with 68.2% playoff odds, but their 29.7% division odds pale next to the Dodgers’ near-lock on the NL West. Baltimore sits at 3.6% despite 83.9 projected wins, while Houston—once an October staple—checks in at just 2.3%.
22 Teams Already Under 2% Before Opening Day
Twenty-two of 30 teams sit under 2% to win the World Series before a single pitch has been thrown. Three teams—the Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, and Colorado Rockies—register at 0%.
That’s not literally zero, but it rounds down to under 0.05%. The White Sox project to just 68 wins with a 1.3% playoff shot. Washington (68.6 wins) and Colorado (64.6 wins) face similarly brutal outlooks.
Even teams with winning projections struggle to break through. San Diego projects to 79.3 wins and a 21.4% playoff chance, but carries just 0.7% World Series odds. The Angels (0.1%), Marlins (0.2%,) and Cardinals (0.2%) are essentially eliminated from championship contention before Spring Training ends, according to FanGraphs.
The Dodgers’ 28% marks a massive concentration of championship equity heading into 2026. Los Angeles enters as the overwhelming favorite, but 72% of FanGraphs’ simulations still saw someone else lifting the trophy. The gap between the Dodgers and the field might be historic, but October remains unpredictable.
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