The Detroit Pistons are running out of time in their standoff with Jalen Duren. While a sign-and-trade seemed possible at the beginning of free agency, Duren’s market is non-existent at this point.
With the Pistons standing firm on the idea that Duren is not a max-level center right now, the young veteran has to decide whether he’s going to secure a lesser deal or gamble on himself with the qualifying offer in 2026-2027.
Ultimately, Sports Illustrated predicts that Duren will accept the less-than-max offer, which could give him some long-term security.
Pistons Star Jalen Duren Gets $140 Million Contract Prediction
GettyWASHINGTON, DC – MARCH 17: Jalen Duren #0 of the Detroit Pistons controls the ball against the Washington Wizards during the second half at Capital One Arena on March 17, 2026 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
In a rundown of free agency predictions, SI notes that Duren could end up with $140 million over four seasons ($35 million AAV).
Obviously, that’s a massive drop from the $287 million supermax he was deemed eligible for, but going from a potential $35 million salary to playing for under $10 million is a risk that not many players should be willing to take.
“The push-pull is obvious: Duren wants a fat new contract to reflect his status as a 23-year-old All-NBA center, while the Pistons are (understandably) reluctant to give him such a deal after the postseason exposed fundamental flaws in his game that will take time to addressâif they can be addressed at all,” SI wrote.
Should Jalen Duren Take The Gamble?
GettyCLEVELAND, OHIO – MAY 09: Jalen Duren #0 of the Detroit Pistons waits during the fourth quarter of Game Three of the Second Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Arena on May 09, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cavaliers defeated the Pistons 116-109. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
A strong regular season was followed by an ugly postseason showing from Duren in 2026. Each passing playoff game had fans saying that Duren was losing millions. That assumption turned out to be correct.
The only way Duren makes chump change by NBA standards next season is if he takes the qualifying offer. Sure, it could result in him having another strong season (19.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG in 2025-2026), but he’s far from a lock to go back-to-back with All-Star appearances.
And what if an injury occurs? Or the playoff struggles persist? The deal on the table will go down much quicker than it will go up. It’s an unfortunate situation to be in, but the 22-year-old center didn’t get much help from the market this offseason. The gamble probably isn’t worth it.
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