Watching a pitcher’s velocity dip is never a good thing. At best, it tends to make them easier to hit. Worse, it can often mean there’s an injury. However, that type of velocity dip is exactly what Pittsburgh Pirates star and 2025 Cy Young winner Paul Skenes is dealing with.
A season ago, Baseball Savant listed Skenes’ fastball velocity at 98.2 mph. This season, it’s down to 97.0 mph. On Wednesday, it got worse, and he was down to 94 mph against the Philadelphia Phillies in a game where he gave up 7 earned runs in 4.0 innings.
Another way to look at that is that Skenes is in the 86th percentile for Fastball Velocity. In 2025, that was 95th percentile, and in 2024, it was in the 99th percentile.
Mechanics May Be to Blame for Pittsburgh Pirates SP Paul Skenes Losing Velocity
GettyPittsburgh Pirates SP Paul Skenes
There are a few things that could lead to the kind of velocity dip that Pittsburgh Pirates SP Paul Skenes is dealing with. Injuries are a common reason, and the dip in velocity is often considered an indicator of an issue.
Nobody wants that to be the case, of course. Luckily, it’s not the only possibility, and in the case of Skenes, there’s also a pretty clear change in his mechanics from last season to this one, which could be having its own impact on his ability to throw.
Rob Friedman, or Pitching Ninja on Twitter/X, brought the mechanical issue to light. In a superimposed video, he showed Skenes pitching at 100 mph a season ago to 94 mph on Wednesday night.
It’s pretty clear that Skenes’ right arm is being held in a different position right now than it was a season ago. From staying tighter to his chest, Skenes is letting his arm drop out quicker.
Presumably, the Pirates and Skenes are aware of the issue. However, it’s easier to see an issue than to fix it. On top of that, it’s not unheard of that mechanical changes are due to an injury in their own right.
For instance, there was some concern about Boston Red Sox ace Garrett Crochet when his arm slot changed. That turned into an arm issue, which has kept him off the mound since the end of April. Losing Skenes to something similar is something the Pirates simply can’t afford.
Skenes is Suffering From a Slump Along With His Decline in Velocity
GettyPittsburgh Pirates SP Paul Skenes
This has been the most difficult season of Paul Skenes’ young career. After last night’s loss, he’s up to a 3.62 ERA and a 1.010 WHIP with 11.o strikeouts per nine and 1.o home runs per nine. In each of his previous two seasons, he finished with an ERA of 1.97 or better. So, while his numbers are good, the Pirates did expect better.
The issues for Skenes started up in the middle of this season, too. Through the first nine starts of the season, he looked like his old self, with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP. So, something did change midway through the year.
In fact, since May 17th against the Philadelphia Phillies, he’s only pitched 6.0 innings three times and never pitched more than that. In that same stretch, he’s given up 28 runs in 47 innings.
It’s something the Pirates can’t afford, particularly as they’ve struggled to put up runs for Skenes. As a result, he’s now 0-6 and the Pirates are 0-9 since that May 17th downturn and slump.
“I don’t know … it happens. We’ll figure out what it is and we’ll just keep attacking it,” Skenes said on Wednesday.
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