The New England Patriots are back in a familiar place with high expectations.
But Mike Vrabel’s squad is still chasing the Buffalo Bills.
As of Thursday, July 9, at 9:53 a.m. Eastern time, Polymarket’s AFC East champion market lists the Buffalo Bills as the favorite at 56%, with the Patriots sitting as the next closest team at 31%. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are buried much further down the board.
Kalshi’s AFC East Division Winner market had a nearly identical split, with Buffalo at 56% and New England at 37%.
For years, the Patriots were far and away the top dog of the AFC East when Tom Brady and Bill Belichick ran the show. But it’s a different world now with Josh Allen anchoring a strong Buffalo Bills’ team.
Allen remains one of the safest quarterback answers in the league, and Buffalo has spent years as the division standard.
The Patriots struggled in Belichick’s final years, but after a surprise Super Bowl berth last season, they’ve worked their way back into the conversation for the division’s elite.
Maye Gives Patriots a Market Case
The reason starts with Drake Maye.
The Patriots finally have the type of quarterback who can make a market move. Maye finished with 4,394 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2025.
If you put a quarterback capable of putting up those numbers on any team, chances will increase.
But New England has a solid enough offensive line, ranked in the middle of the pack by NFL analyst Warren Sharp, to keep Maye upright.
Even when the play breaks down, Maye is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL off platform.
According to Next Gen Stats, he led the NFL with 1,085 passing yards and nine touchdowns under pressure entering Week 15, while averaging 8.8 yards per attempt in those situations. PFF also credited him with 422 scramble yards last season.
His arm gives New England weekly upside with his mobility keeping drives alive.
His jump from 2024 to 2025, coming alongside offensive guru Josh McDaniels, gives the Patriots something better than hope.
A.J. Brown Changes the Ceiling
A.J. Brown is the clearest change propelling New England to act as a continued competitor to Buffalo.
The Philadelphia Eagles traded Brown to the Patriots for a 2028 first-round pick and a 2027 fifth-round pick. The trade gave Maye the kind of No. 1 receiver New England had been missing.
Brown ended his 2025 campaign with 78 catches, 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns. It wasn’t his best work, but he also was the victim of a run-heavy offense that won’t take as many shots downfield as the Patriots will.
TeamRankings had Philadelphia with the NFL’s sixth-highest rushing play rate, while Next Gen Stats later credited Drake Maye with a league-high 112 downfield completions for the New England Patriots.
With Brown on his side now, Maye doesn’t need to hit perfect throws to rack up chunk yardage.
Because Brown can win through contact, create late separation and turn contested throws into chain-moving plays. He also forces defenses to decide how aggressive they want to be against the rest of New England’s offense.
The Bills can take the favorite label in the markets.
However, the Patriots are close enough to make this feel like more like a 50-50 race.
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