In 2025, the New England Patriots shocked the NFL by storming back into relevance, winning the AFC East and going to the Super Bowl. Now, it doesn’t seem like many are predicting them to do that again.
Despite how last season went, the Buffalo Bills are widely being predicted ahead of the Patriots in the AFC East. That continues with the latest projections from The Athletic.
Austin Mock shared his projection model. In it, he has the Bills at 10.7 wins and the Patriots at just 10.3 wins. Then, the Bills have a 73.4% chance to make the playoffs and 6.6% Super Bowl odds. The Patriots sit at 68.2% and 6.2% respectively.
Why the New England Patriots Trail the Buffalo Bills
GettyThe New England Patriots swarm to tackle James Cook
The margins between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills are, admittedly, close. Still, Mock explained that it comes down to the Patriots not improving enough.
“It’s a two-horse race in the AFC East this year, with each team harboring realistic championship aspirations,” Mock wrote. “The Patriots are the defending division champs after dethroning quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills last season en route to representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Since then, they’ve added A.J. Brown, the true WR1 that MVP runner-up Drake Maye and the offense were missing. Still, my model doesn’t think the Patriots improved enough, projecting the Bills to win their sixth AFC East title in seven years.”
Ultimately, Mock puts it on Maye for the Patriots to overcome the Bills again. Last year’s MVP runner-up will, apparently, need to improve again and become an elite quarterback in his third NFL season.
“For the Patriots to overcome the Bills, Maye will probably need to ascend into the elite echelon of quarterbacks that his division rival occupies. Last year, Maye was one of the league’s most efficient passers and utilized his legs well, albeit against a weak schedule. But with the addition of Brown, fellow receiver Romeo Doubs and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, I expect another good year for the offense. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Patriots were a better team this year compared to last, but their record doesn’t reflect it. Either way, the ceiling of this team is probably the highest in the division, and I expect them to make a deep run in January,” Mock wrote.
The Patriots won’t see the Bills until October 4th, when they have a road test. After that, it’ll be a key December 6th game in Gillette Stadium.
Patriots QB Drake Maye on His Long-Term Plans
GettyNew England Patriots QB Drake Maye
Drake Maye is the key for the Patriots in 2026, but that’s not necessarily news. He’s quickly become their plan at quarterback for the foreseeable future.
Despite that, when Maye was recently asked about his future, he insisted that he’s focused on the present moment.
“Yeah, I don’t think it’s hard not to think about it,” Maye said. “For me, I try to be in the present every day. That’s why they call it a present, man. It’s a gift. So, I just try to be here, be where my feet are, and trying to get better and better.”
As it stands now, Maye is going into the third year of his rookie contract. It’s doubtful the Patriots risk a contractual issue with their franchise quarterback, so when the time comes, expect an extension.
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