The San Diego Padres may not have Nick Pivetta for long, and Bob Nightengale’s latest reporting makes that reality sound less like a possibility and more like an expectation.
According to Nightengale of USA Today, rival executives already view it as a “no-brainer” that Pivetta will opt out after the 2026 season and test free agency. For a Padres team that has stayed competitive despite rotation uncertainty, that is a significant long-term concern. It also speaks to just how much Pivetta has raised his value since arriving in San Diego.
That is the part that matters most here. This is not just about contract language. It is about performance finally catching up to market value.
Pivetta signed a four-year, $55 million deal with the Padres, but the structure now looks favorable to the player if he stays healthy and continues pitching anywhere close to this level. He is set to make $14 million in 2027, with an $18 million player option for 2028. In today’s pitching market, that is not frontline starter money. If Pivetta posts another strong season, he will almost certainly have a chance to beat that on the open market.
Why the Opt-Out Looks So Obvious
GettyNick Pivetta #27 of the San Diego Padres reacts after giving up two runs on three hits in the fifth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 7, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Nightengale reported that opposing general managers already expect Pivetta to hit free agency this winter, assuming the elbow tightness that cut short his latest start is not serious. That caveat matters, because health is the only real variable that could change the equation.
If he is healthy, the logic is simple. Starting pitching gets paid, and durable starters who can miss bats get paid even more. Pivetta has looked like exactly that kind of arm in San Diego.
After a rough Opening Day outing in which he allowed six runs in three innings, Pivetta settled in quickly. Over his next 13 innings, he gave up just two runs while striking out 20. That kind of swing-and-miss production is exactly what boosts a pitcher’s leverage heading into free agency, especially when paired with his 2025 body of work.
Last season, Pivetta made 31 starts and posted a 2.87 ERA across 182.1 innings. He also led Padres starters in wins with 13 and innings pitched, which gave San Diego both quality and reliability. Those are the traits contenders pay for, and they are the traits the Padres would struggle to replace internally.
What It Means for the Padres
GettyNick Pivetta #27 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a game against the Detroit Tigers on Opening Day at Petco Park on March 26, 2026 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
The bigger issue for San Diego is that this could create another looming rotation problem for a club that already operates with little margin for error. The Padres have found ways to win through strong bullpen work and timely contributions from multiple starters, but losing Pivetta after the season would leave a major hole at the top of the staff.
It also reinforces why 2026 carries extra urgency. If the Padres are going to maximize this window, they may need to do it while Pivetta is still under contract. Once he reaches free agency, retaining him could become much more difficult than initially expected.
For now, everything starts with his health. But if Pivetta returns quickly and keeps producing, Nightengale’s report will only look more accurate with every start.
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