Packers Rookie Could Supplant $48 Million Star Within Just 1 Year

“Not only with his rushing ability but his ability to catch passes out of the backfield,” Fowler said of Lloyd with regards to his similarities to Jones, per Joseph Zucker of Bleacher Report. “So, the expectation is they’re going to get him acclimated pretty early, try to use him a lot.”

Zucker also noted an X post from Derek Brown of FantasyPros and BettingPros that detailed the Packers’ ability to extricate themselves from Jacobs’ contract after the 2024 campaign.

“The Packers can move on from Josh Jacobs next year if he doesn’t bounce back with a $9.3 [million] dead cap,” Brown wrote. “So naw, I’m not as worried about MarShawn Lloyd as others.”

Josh Jacobs Was All-Pro for Raiders in 2022 Before Injuries Slowed Him Down Last Season

Technically, the Packers will incur a dead cap hit of $9.375 million in 2025 if they terminate Jacobs’ four-year, $48 million contract after just one season, but the point is that Green Bay doesn’t have to throw good money after bad should Jacobs fail to return to his All-Pro form of 2022.

Jacobs bet on himself by accepting a deal that includes just $12.5 million in fully guaranteed money, and if he plays like a top-five running back in 2024 (his salary is the fifth-highest at the position league-wide heading into the season) then the organization isn’t likely to send him packing. And if it does, he’ll find a comfortable and lucrative home elsewhere at some point during the offseason.

As a former first-round pick of the Las Vegas Raiders, Jacobs earned Pro Bowl honors in his second and fourth NFL seasons (2020, 2022), as well as a first-team All-Pro selection in 2022. He led the league in rushing that year with 1,653 yards and added 12 TDs on the ground. Jacobs also caught 53 passes for a career-high 400 receiving yards that season, per Pro Football Reference.

However, injuries hampered Jacobs in 2023. He played in just 13 of 17 regular-season games, amassing a career-low 805 rushing yards. He was still able to score 6 TDs and hauled in 37 receptions for 296 yards through the air.

MarShawn Lloyd Could Steal Josh Jacobs’ Job With Packers Even if He Doesn’t Outplay Him

The problem for Jacobs is that Lloyd doesn’t even have to outplay him to render Jacobs expendable. All he has to do is be good enough that the expected production-to-cost ratio is high enough for the Packers to justify moving on from Jacobs for the far less expensive Lloyd — even if that means a step back in overall talent at the position.

Lloyd, the 88th overall pick, hasn’t signed a contract with Green Bay yet, though Spotrac projects his value at just shy of $5.7 million total over the standard four-year rookie deal. That equates to just over $1.42 million per season.

The Packers are likely on the verge of paying quarterback Jordan Love something in the neighborhood of $45-$50 million annually over a new multiyear contract, which could come this offseason or potentially the next. Love is currently set to play the 2024 season on a one-year deal worth $13.5 million guaranteed that could hit $22.5 million with incentives, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

The rest of the offensive roster, including a cache of high-level pass-catchers, are among the youngest in the NFL and playing predominantly on cheap rookie deals. Those financial circumstances will allow Green Bay to award Love with a massive new deal, just as they allowed the franchise to dangle nearly $50 million in front of Jacobs, despite the continued devaluation of the RB position across the league in recent years.

That said, the Packers won’t continue to pay Jacobs huge money if they don’t have to, unless he makes huge contributions. And even in that scenario, if Lloyd’s production projects to end up somewhere in the ballpark of Jacobs’, the team might still part with Jacobs early in the interest of saving money.