MINNEAPOLIS — The Nuggets no longer need a physical prop to represent their championship aspirations, so Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is thinking of scaling back on a 2023 tradition.
When he was the only player on the roster who’d won a championship, he brought his Lakers ring to Denver’s home playoff games as a motivational symbol for teammates. This year is different. “Everybody has one,” he pointed out last weekend. The Nuggets have proof of their potential. That 2020 ring’s services won’t be as necessary.
But Caldwell-Pope’s services will be as crucial as ever. Offensively, he’s the fifth starter in the NBA’s steadiest starting five. Defensively, he’s the backcourt’s backbone, guarding every opponent’s best guard. In the deep and talented West, he’s responsible for checking superstars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry. When the Nuggets ended Boston’s perfect home record, Michael Malone mirrored Caldwell-Pope’s minutes with Jayson Tatum’s. “KCP has an indomitable will,” Aaron Gordon said.
He’s also taking Bruce Brown’s place as the most imminent question mark looming over the Nuggets’ future. Last summer, their sixth man declined a $6.8 million player option to enter free agency. This summer, their fifth man has a $15.4 million player option in his two-year contract. Caldwell-Pope’s 2023-24 cap figure is $14.7 million.
“It gets hard not to think about it,” Caldwell-Pope told The Denver Post. “But right now to me, it’s just trying to get to the playoffs, trying to win another championship, whether I have a player option or not. That’s the least of my worries. It’s just trying to play high-level basketball, whoever that may be with.”
With the Nuggets seemingly poised to make another deep playoff run, Caldwell-Pope is expected as of March to decline his player option and attract a robust market, according to league sources. His perspective? Conversations about a contract decision will “have to wait for toward the end of the season.”
Opting out wouldn’t necessarily equal walking away from Denver. The Nuggets will try to keep Caldwell-Pope on the 2024-25 roster regardless. But as was the case with Brown last year, it’ll depend on a variety of factors: Who wins the championship, how the market subsequently unfolds, what Caldwell-Pope prioritizes if he’s highly sought-after, and how far over the luxury tax Denver is willing to spend. The 2023-24 payroll is already $4.7 million shy of the current second apron, a new CBA demarcation that imposes penalties on teams that exceed it for more than one year.
If they do lose Caldwell-Pope, the Nuggets must be prepared to consider all options, including an offseason acquisition to fill his spot or an in-house promotion. General manager Calvin Booth drafted players such as Christian Braun and Peyton Watson knowing future championship seasons could price out starters like KCP. Ideally, Braun can develop into a capable starting guard. He’s already a promising wing defender off the bench, but his two-way game might not be consistent enough yet to make the leap.
In any case, keeping KCP would be best-case for Denver. So what will it take?
A name that comes to mind as a recent reference point is one of his former teammates.
Danny Green, circa June 2019, was a dependable 3-and-D specialist who had been the fourth or fifth starter for multiple championship-winning franchises.
Green was on an expiring contract in 2019 when he won his second title. He was 31 years old, about to be 32. (Caldwell-Pope turned 31 in February.) In his lone season with Toronto, Green started 80 games and 20 more in the playoffs, averaging 10.3 points, four rebounds, 1.6 assists and 0.9 steals. He shot a career-high 45.5% from 3-point range on 5.4 attempts per game.
In 2022-23, Caldwell-Pope started 76 games and 20 more in the playoffs. He averaged 10.8 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 steals. He shot a career-high 42.3% from three on 4.2 attempts. His durability and scoring have stayed similar this season despite a drop in 3-point volume and efficiency (39%).
It’s not a perfect one-for-one comparison, obviously. Green had a bit more length than Caldwell-Pope. He contributed a bit more rebounding. Most notably, he had an All-Defensive Team appearance on his resume. Caldwell-Pope does not, though he has made a commendable run at it this year with campaigning help from teammates.
Still, the numbers and player profiles are similar enough to warrant a loose examination. Green was wrapping up a four-year deal with an average salary of $10 million. In 2018-19, that accounted for about 9.8% of the league salary cap and 7.3% of his team’s payroll. He was Toronto’s fifth-highest paid player, like Caldwell-Pope currently is in Denver.
Green’s excellent season and the Raptors’ championship catapulted him to a two-year, $30 million deal with the Lakers. His cap value increased to about 13.4% of the 2019-20 salary cap and 11.9% of the Lakers’ cap chart. He became his team’s third-highest paid player.
Caldwell-Pope’s current salary equals 10.8% of the 2023-24 league cap and 7.9% of Denver’s roster payroll, valued slightly higher than Green’s $10 million in 2019. (The difference worth understanding here is that Green’s contract was a longer-term deal with higher total earnings, signed during his Spurs days.)
If Caldwell-Pope’s value against the cap increased by 3.6% like Green’s, using the current 2024-25 cap projection of $141 million, that would hypothetically locate his next salary around $20.3 million on a similar short-term deal to Green’s with Los Angeles. A reasonable number could be lower than that depending on various factors, such as KCP’s decrease in 3-point percentage or the aforementioned lack of an All-Defense nod. Other organizations might also be careful to scrutinize free agents who have benefitted from sharing the floor with Nikola Jokic. Caldwell-Pope’s minutes coincide with Jokic’s more than any other pair of players on the roster.
On the other hand, Caldwell-Pope is uniquely egoless in terms of wanting shots. His attempts have decreased two straight years in Denver without scrutiny or controversy, an indicator of how smoothly KCP can melt into his precise role.
And teams value championship contributions and experience. If the Nuggets do repeat, or even make the NBA Finals again, Caldwell-Pope’s two years in Denver coinciding with two Finals runs would likely make him enticing to other contenders. There are certainly candidates with more cap space to play around with, most notably the Philadelphia 76ers. Remember, Indiana shelled out $22.5 million a year for Brown after he came off the bench in Denver.
With months remaining still before the June 29 player option deadline, one can only speculate. Caldwell-Pope, understandably, doesn’t have the energy for that. He expends too much on a nightly basis chasing All-NBA opponents around screens.
It’s a task that demands more constant effort and intensity than other roles. It’s why he’s admired by teammates and trusted by coaches. Caldwell-Pope says his past championships haven’t affected his full-throttle approach to the regular season.
“I’m always a person who, at the start of the season, it’s a new season, and my mindset is just trying to keep winning championships,” he said.
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As of March 20, Denver’s starting five was outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per 100 possessions in 869 minutes together — 115 more minutes than any other five-man NBA lineup has played this season. “One of the best starting fives in the league,” Caldwell-Pope called it.
Is it the best starting five he’s ever played with?
“As a unit? Yes,” he said after thinking. “Might be the best five I’ll play with.”
The Nuggets’ challenge is keeping those five together as long as possible. Even the fifth matters.
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