The New England Patriots spent the offseason treating a Super Bowl appearance as a starting point rather than a finished product.
They traded for A.J. Brown, signed Romeo Doubs and continued building around Drake Maye after a 14-win season.
Regardless, Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon remains unconvinced that New England will live up to its latest expectations.
Gagnon selected the under on the Patriots’ 10.5-win total at -140 in his July 24 predictions for every NFL team.
He assigned the pick a high confidence level, praising the receiver additions while arguing that New England enters the season in a “bad spot.”
Gagon’s take comes as the odds are not in the Patriots favor to win the division and as SB Nation predicts they will open the season 1-3.
Patriots’ 2025 Breakthrough Comes Under Scrutiny
GettyPatriots head coach Mike Vrabel addresses the media.
New England’s turnaround was one of the NFL’s defining stories last season.
The Patriots improved from 4-13 to 14-3 in Mike Vrabel’s first year as head coach, won the AFC Championship Game and reached Super Bowl LX.
Their season ended with a 29-13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, but the year included a league-record 10-win improvement.
Maye also finished as the NFL MVP runner-up.
Gagnon’s skepticism begins with the conditions surrounding that rise.
He wrote that the Patriots benefited from the league’s best injury luck and “easily the softest schedule” in 2025. He also pointed to a potential Super Bowl hangover and a larger target following their rapid ascent.
Sharp Football Analysis offered similar context in its Patriots win-total breakdown.
New England went an NFL-best 12-1 against teams that missed the playoffs and 2-2 against playoff teams during the regular season. Sharp ranked the Patriots’ 2025 schedule as the league’s easiest.
The road changes in 2026.
New England’s schedule includes eight teams that reached the postseason last year, and its first four games come against playoff opponents. The stretch begins with a Super Bowl rematch in Seattle before games against Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Buffalo.
The progress New England is well-know, but the tougher schedule reduces the margin for error that helped turn a promising season into a 14-win run.
Brown, Doubs Give Patriots Reason to Push Back
GettySAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – FEBRUARY 04: Romeo Doubs visits SiriusXM on Radio Row at Super Bowl LX on February 04, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Cindy Ord/Getty Images for SiriusXM)
The Patriots made their strongest response to those concerns at receiver with the blockbuster trade of Brown.
After recording 78 receptions for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns last season, the three-time Pro Bowler has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in six of his seven NFL seasons, which means the Patriots and Maye shouldn’t feel rue the departure of Stefon Diggs.
Doubs adds another skilled option after finishing his final season in Green Bay with 55 receptions for a career-high 724 yards and six touchdowns. The Patriots announced his signing in March.
The team later described its new receiving group as one of its deepest in recent memory. Brown is expected to work primarily outside, while Doubs could handle significant volume from the slot.
Their arrival gives Maye more help after he completed 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Sharp Football Analysis also credited him with leading all qualified quarterbacks in expected points added per play.
There will still be an adjustment period.
New England changed the top of its receiver rotation and added new pieces along the offensive line. Gagnon cited those offensive personnel changes as another reason to question an 11-win projection.
The Patriots have enough talent to make the prediction look overly cautious; however, the high-confidence under reflects how much must go right to win at least 11 games in consecutive seasons.
New England climbed quickly last year.
But Vrabel’s squad needs to show they can stay at the top.
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