The 2026 NBA MVP race, by all accounts, has been one of the best competitions for the league’s top-end-of-season award over the past few years. There have been several players with the best MVP odds, even more as top candidates and in the running for the award, and stars making strong cases every given night with incredible performances.
However, with just a few games left in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, the race has dwindled down to just two superstars with the top odds for the award: Victor Wembanyama of the San Antonio Spurs and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Nikola Jokic has dropped down in the race, and Luka Doncic now appears to be out after his hamstring injury, but both were previously top candidates for the award.
But now, Wembanyama has gone down with an injury of his own, and while he is still in contention for the award, MVP odds over the past 12 hours have shifted dramatically.
NBA MVP Odds After Victor Wembanyama Injury
GettySAN ANTONIO, TX -APRIL 6: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs grabs his left arm after an injury during game against the Philadelphia 76ers in the first half at Frost Bank Center on April 6, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. Wembanyama stayed in the first half but did not return to play in the second half.
To be clear, betting odds from top sportsbooks don’t tell the full story of the NBA MVP race, but they give a pretty good measure of where things stand, and who the favorites are.
Currently, according to most major sportsbooks and prediction markets, Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win the MVP this season, in what would be his second-straight year earning the award.
Previously, Wembanyama was close behind, but after suffering a rib injury on Monday, his MVP odds have dropped significantly.
DraftKings MVP Odds: Gilgeous-Alexander -400, Wembanyama +1800
FanDuel MVP Odds: Gilgeous-Alexander -5000, Wembanyama +2000
Kalshi MVP Odds: Gilgeous-Alexander 96%, Wembanyama 3%
Polymarket MVP Odds: Gilgeous-Alexander 95%, Wembanyama 3%
With just a few games to go in the regular season, here are the full statistics for the top two leaders in the MVP race:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander stats: 31.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks on 55.2/38.3/88 shooting splits in 66 games.
Victor Wembanyama stats: 24.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, one steal, 3.1 blocks on 51/35/82.5 shooting splits in 63 games.
Wemby might be the favorite for the Defensive Player of the Year, but especially after suffering the injury, he has a big hill to climb to win the MVP award.
More On The NBA MVP Race
At this point, the NBA MVP odds paint a clear picture. However, two other key factors could impact who wins the award.
According to the ESPN NBA MVP straw poll, Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win the award. 100 voters revealed their expected choice, and the Thunder star got 88 first-place votes, while Wembanyama got eight.
The ESPN straw poll has correctly predicted the league MVP in every year it has been released, and right now, it looks to be correct once again.
The only thing standing in Gilgeous-Alexander’s way is the NBA.com MVP ladder. For the past two weeks, Wembanyama has ranked first, and while there hasn’t been a new ladder since his injury, he could very well finish the season atop the list. Written by Shaun Powell, it is uncertain whether the NBA.com MVP ladder has any bearing on the actual award voting, but in the past few weeks, it’s been the Spurs’ star sitting in first.
While Wembanyama did go down with the rib injury on Monday, he still has a chance to finish with 65-games under his belt and qualify for end-of-season awards.
“Wembanyama played 15 minutes, 40 seconds (before the injury), which will count toward eligibility for postseason awards, as players are granted two exceptions to the requirement of playing 20 minutes in a game as long as they play at least 15 minutes,” Michael C. Wright wrote for ESPN. “The favorite to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year and a contender for MVP, Wembanyama needs to play at least 20 minutes in one of San Antonio’s remaining three games to maintain eligibility for postseason awards.”
But regardless of what happens with Wembanyama as the Spurs wait for a new injury update, he now looks to be out of the race for the award, just by looking at the current MVP odds.
It’s been a historic season for him, as well as Jokic, Doncic, and all the other players previously in contention for the MVP, but at this point, Gilgeous-Alexander looks to be taking home the trophy once again.
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