P
layer props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a playerâs ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-driven dfsPro model has highlighted several individual performances to watch out for during the games scheduled for April 30. Letâs dive into some of the top MLB player prop bets weâre favoring based on our statistical analysis sourced from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Jordan Montgomery Over 16.5 Outs (-125, DraftKings)
Jordan Montgomery played a pivotal role in the Texas Rangers journey to their 1st World Series championship last year. Over the past 3 seasons, he has consistently performed well as a major-league pitcher. In 2023, Montgomery exceeded expectations, making 25 successful starts out of 32 overall. In his last 16 outings, he has surpassed this mark in 15 instances. Known for his ability to limit walks, Montgomery ranks in the 80th percentile or better historically, although his strikeout rate is slightly below average. Despite this, he excels at inducing soft contact and maintaining manageable pitch counts. In the early stages of the current season, he boasts impressive stats, including a 2.08 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and a hard-hit rate in the 74th percentile, indicating his effectiveness. Although facing the Los Angeles Dodgers presents a tough challenge, their performance against left-handed pitchers is notably weaker compared to right-handers, with their WRC+ dropping from 124 to 113. 4 out of the last 5 left-handed starters, excluding Tommy Henry, have managed to perform well against the Dodgers, making this matchup more feasible for Montgomery.
Reynaldo López Over 16.5 Outs (-110, DraftKings)
Reynaldo López has surpassed the over in all 4 of his starts with some remarkable statistics to back it up. Just recently, he delivered a stellar 7-inning outing with only 82 pitches thrown, showcasing his efficiency and effectiveness on the mound. López has been virtually unhittable, ranking in the 90th percentile in ERA, batting average against (BAA), and WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched). He consistently reaches the 6th inning in each of his starts, demonstrating his durability and reliability. Facing the Seattle Mariners, who struggle against right-handed pitchers with their high strikeout rate and low batting average and on-base percentage, López seems poised for another strong performance. With his ability to navigate through tough situations and pitch deep into games, taking the over on 16.5 outs for López at favorable odds seems like a smart bet.
Lock of the Day
Freddy Peralta Over 17.5 Outs (-150, DraftKings)
Freddy Peralta has stepped up as the Milwaukee Brewers‘ ace in the 2024 season, showcasing impressive performances in his first 5 starts with a 3.18 ERA, 3.03 expected FIP, and he ranks in the 93rd percentile in strikeout rate. Although he has struggled with walks in the past, his aggressive pitching style often limits his innings, as seen in his 16 starts out of 30 last season where he pitched 16 innings. However, if he can control his walks, he has the potential to consistently pitch 6 or more innings. Over the past 3 seasons, Peralta has consistently ranked in the 80th percentile or better in expected ERA and expected batting average, proving his reliability as a pitcher. Facing the struggling Tampa Bay Rays offense presents a favorable opportunity for Peralta to excel. The Rays are known for their aggressive approach at the plate, boasting high swing and chase percentages. Despite their aggressiveness, they rank among the lowest in walks drawn against right-handed pitchers. Peralta’s ability to induce swings and misses aligns well with the Rays’ aggressive style, suggesting he could navigate through their lineup effectively. The Rays’ slightly above-average pitches per plate appearance shouldn’t pose a significant challenge for Peralta, given his exceptional strikeout ability.
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