Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for April 19. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Prop Bets
Clark Schmidt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, DraftKings)
Tonight, in the Bronx, Clark Schmidt will take the mound for the New York Yankees against the Tampa Bay Rays. Schmidt has managed a respectable 3.68 ERA across 3 starts, though his high 1.64 WHIP suggests he’s navigated some trouble on the base paths. Facing the Rays, who tend to put the ball in play frequently and boast a .296 BABIP this season, Schmidt may encounter similar challenges.
Furthermore, there’s reason to anticipate regression in Schmidt’s ability to generate strikeouts. While his cutter has boasted an impressive 38% whiff rate this year, a significant jump from last season’s 22%, it’s unlikely he’ll sustain such a dramatic increase. Coupled with the aggressive approach of the Rays’ lineup, it’s doubtful Schmidt will tally many strikeouts tonight.
Historically, Schmidt has fallen below this strikeout total 70% of the time last season, and he’s continued that trend this year with 2 out of his first 3 outings going under. With the odds seemingly in our favor, it’s worth noting that projections align with this sentiment, forecasting Schmidt for just 4.5 strikeouts.
Alec Marsh Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (-160, DraftKings)
Alec Marsh’s line of under 2.5 walks allowed carries strong backing for a favorable outcome. In his MLB career spanning 10 starts, he has fallen below this mark in 8 out of 10 instances, showcasing consistent control. This trend extends to the current season, with Marsh maintaining a perfect record of staying under the line in all 3 of his starts, demonstrating improved command by not allowing more than 1 walk in any game. Impressively, his walk rate stands at a mere 4.0% this season, further reinforcing his ability to limit walks.
Marsh’s success in avoiding walks is also supported by his performance in home starts, where he has remained under the 2.5 walks threshold in all 3 outings of his career. Adding to the favorable outlook is the Orioles’ tendency to seldom draw walks against right-handed pitchers, boasting the lowest walk rate against righties in the league at 6.1% this season. Marsh’s recent encounter with the Orioles saw him surrender just 1 walk, underscoring his capability to navigate their lineup with precision.
Considering these factors, the likelihood of Marsh surpassing the 2.5 walks allowed mark appears slim, despite the line being priced with a premium. Given his consistent performance and the Orioles’ propensity to avoid walks against right-handed pitching, this line seems heavily skewed towards a favorable outcome, potentially rendering it undervalued at its current offering.
Lock of the Day
Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110, DraftKings)
Garrett Crochet has emerged as a standout performer for the Chicago White Sox this season, showcasing his talent in four starts where he exceeded expectations in three of them. Facing the Philadelphia Phillies, a team ranked 12th in strikeouts in the league, presents a favorable opportunity for Crochet to continue his strikeout dominance. Despite a recent tough outing against the Cincinatti Reds, there’s no indication that it’s indicative of a broader decline in his abilities.
In his last start, although Crochet yielded 5 runs and 8 total base runners, which can partly be attributed to unfortunate luck with leaving runners on base, he still managed to strike out 10 Reds hitters in just 4.2 innings. Notably, his performance yielded an impressive 2.27 FIP, suggesting that his underlying performance was stronger than the surface statistics indicate.
Crochet possesses a potent fastball, rated highly with a 107 Stuff+ rating, which enables him to generate swings and misses in the strike zone. Additionally, his slider, boasting a 135 Stuff+ rating, has proven effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. Overall, Crochet’s arsenal positions him well to capitalize on the Phillies’ susceptibility to strikeouts and continue his success on the mound.
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