The Minnesota Vikings are entering the 2026 season as the biggest long shot in their own division, according to ESPN Analytics.
ESPN’s Kevin Seifert shared the model’s NFC North probabilities on July 20, with Minnesota receiving only a 10% chance to win the division. The Detroit Lions led at 38%, followed by the Green Bay Packers at 33% and Chicago Bears at 19%.
That projection leaves the Vikings a considerable distance behind their three rivals as Kevin O’Connell’s team prepares for training camp. It also places more pressure on Minnesota’s unresolved quarterback competition and an opening schedule that offers little time to ease into the season.
ESPN Model Puts Vikings Last in Crowded NFC North
The 10% figure does not mean ESPN is predicting the Vikings will finish last. Probabilities account for a range of potential outcomes, and Minnesota could outperform the model with better quarterback play or improved health.
Still, the gap is significant. Detroit’s projected chance is nearly four times Minnesota’s, while Green Bay’s is more than three times as high.
The model’s skepticism is understandable after Minnesota finished the 2025 season with nine wins and entered the offseason without an established long-term answer behind center. The Vikings are now preparing for a training-camp competition between Kyler Murray and J.J. McCarthy. The team’s official camp preview described “intense intrigue” around the position, with the two quarterbacks competing to lead an offense built around Justin Jefferson.
Murray offers extensive NFL starting experience, while McCarthy went 6-4 in his 2025 starts. Determining which quarterback gives Minnesota the most consistency could be the single biggest factor in whether the team beats its modest divisional projection.
The quarterback who wins the job will have a strong group of established targets, including Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. But Minnesota also has questions along the offensive line and less proven depth at several defensive positions.
Those uncertainties matter more in a division without an obvious rebuilding team.
Vikings Can Change the Outlook Immediately
Minnesota will not have to wait long for an opportunity to challenge ESPN’s projection.
The Vikings open the regular season at home against the Packers on September 13 before visiting the Bears in Week 2. They will therefore play two of the three teams ranked ahead of them before the end of September’s second weekend.
A 2-0 start would give Minnesota early head-to-head advantages and quickly increase the stakes throughout the division. An 0-2 opening, however, would leave the Vikings chasing multiple rivals almost immediately.
There is also evidence that reasonable evaluators see more upside than the analytics model does. ESPN analyst Ben Solak recently picked Minnesota to win the NFC North, arguing that improved quarterback play could elevate a team that still won nine games in 2025.
That disagreement illustrates the volatility surrounding the Vikings. Their roster contains enough high-end talent to contend, but their ceiling remains tied to a quarterback decision that has not yet been settled.
ESPN Analytics has delivered an unfavorable starting point. The Vikings’ opening divisional stretch will determine whether that 10% projection looks insightful or overly pessimistic.
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