One of the last “big-name” wide receivers to find a home, Mike Williams is joining the Jets on a one-year deal that could be worth as much as $15 million. Last season New York went all in by adding Aaron Rodgers and other key pieces to a playoff-caliber squad. Now they’ll enter 2024 with one of the league’s better offenses, at least on paper.
For fantasy purposes, what can we expect from the 29-year-old Williams? Is he a buy or a fade at his current WR54 ADP, and which key factors will influence his realistic range of outcomes?
Mike Williams Needs Aaron Rodgers to Throw Early and Often
If his WR ADP were 30, Williams would be a huge risk, period. Presumably playing second fiddle to the ascending Garrett Wilson on a run-friendly and potentially defense-friendly squad, the former longtime Charger likely won’t have the benefit of massive targets.
Rodgers has averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game in 224 career starts. Since the start of the 2017 season, he’s averaged 34.1, excluding last year’s one-pass effort in Week 1 before exiting with a season-ending injury.
By contrast, Williams has benefited from playing on the pass-happy Chargers, where Justin Herbert has averaged 39.1 throws per contest since entering the league in 2020, while his predecessor–Philip Rivers–averaged 34.9 passes per game from 2017 to 2019. Statistically, Williams has played his best football alongside Herbert, and these numbers are a key reason why. Simply put, if you’re investing in a team’s #2 WR in fantasy, low-volume quarterbacks frequently limit upside.
That’s not to say Rodgers is “low-volume.” But the 40-year-old probably won’t be slinging it like Herbert. That be a huge departure from his norm, and it wouldn’t suit a Jets franchise that was burned in 2023, and which surely wants to minimize the amount of hits their QB absorbs in a win-now moment.
Where Should Managers Target Williams in Drafts?
The Jets are paying Williams to be not only a weekly starter, but a true impact player. Last season, Allen Lazard was expected to serve as the #2 WR. But amidst the Jets’ QB struggles, the veteran receiver finished as fantasy’s WR99. Assuming Rodgers plays at least half the season (and presumably much more), there’s a path for Williams to net no less than a 50-750-4 receiving line.
His competition consists largely of Wilson through the air and Breece Hall on the ground. 80 targets is realistic, as is a roughly 62%-63% catch rate. Notably, Williams’ catch rate has increased while his drop rate has decreased in recent years. He isn’t a declining talent. He’s a modestly high injury risk with the skills to deliver, on balance, deep-league streamability.
For context, last year Darius Slayton was fantasy’s WR45 with a 50-770-4 receiving line. Williams’ current market value absorbs several risk factors: his recent injury woes, a depth chart that caps his ceiling, and Rodgers’ advancing age and injury risks. That’s understandable and warranted. There are probably 30+ “safer” WRs to invest in on draft day.
However, the market is leaning more heavily toward a worst-case scenario than a best-case, or even a realistic outcome. Even if he and Rodgers play together for only 12-13 games, they should generate enough production to deliver top-50 numbers for Williams. In deep leagues, he’s a must-draft option at his WR54 ADP. And in medium-sized leagues, he’s a solid bargain worth snagging a round or two early.
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