The FIFA World Cup 2026 Round of 16 will continue on Sunday with a highly attractive matchup. Mexico will square off against England in what should be a fantastic game, with both sides vying for a ticket to the quarterfinals.
However, that might be easier said than done for the Mexican side. According to the most recent AI projections, El Tri won’t have an easy time getting out of the Round of 16.
The folks at Oddschecker used their proprietary algorithm to calculate Mexico’s chances of walking away with a victory on Sunday. The data showed the Latin American side had a 26.4% probability of winning the match in the full 90 minutes.
Of course, things could change, and the match might go to penalty kicks. At that point, well, all bets are off.
On the other hand, England will enter the match with a 45.6% shot at winning and moving on. The AI projections show a relatively low 28% chance that the match will extend beyond the full 90 minutes.
Those numbers don’t seem too encouraging for Mexico. While the sides remain as the only team not to surrender a goal in the FIFA World Cup 2026, it remains unclear if their solid defense will be enough to stop Harry Kane and the English.
Mexico’s Probability Gradually Dwindling at FIFA World Cup 2026
As for Mexico’s overall chance of advancing, the numbers don’t look too flattering. The projections show that the Latin American squad has just a 21% probability of making it out of the Round of 16.
That’s still mildly encouraging when considering the remainder of the probability in Mexico’s favor.
El Tri has a 10% chance of getting past the quarterfinals, with a 3% probability of making it to the final. All told, that translates to a 1% chance of taking home the title at the FIFA World Cup 2026.
| Mexico tournament progression | AI projected likelihood |
| Win in the round of 16 | 21% |
| Win in the quarterfinals | 10% |
| Win in the semifinals | 3% |
| Win the final | 1% |
Source: Oddschecker, 2026
While certainly not a 0% chance of winning it all, Mexico fans will be optimistic that their team can pull off somewhat of an upset on home turf at Estadio Azteca.
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Home-Field Advantage Could Play Key Role
Some pundits may claim that there is no such thing as home-field advantage. But at the FIFA World Cup 2026, home-field advantage will be a factor for Mexico.
A Chris Rogers, spokesman for Oddschecker, noted that Mexico could leverage home turf to advance to the quarterfinals.
“Mexico’s incredible record at the Azteca Stadium is expected to be tested by England who could benefit from the home nation’s attacking approach. Oddschecker AI projections give the hosts a 21% likelihood of progressing through to the quarterfinals but bookmakers are more optimistic about their chances. Mexico are the slim +120 underdogs to qualify while England are priced at -125.”
Interestingly, Rogers cited betting odds, as it seems the market thinks the match is much closer than the AI projections.
Is there something that AI knows that sportsbooks don’t?
It’s worth pointing out that AI models track a multitude of data points that humans just can’t handle at the same time. So, it might just be that the algos get it right and Mexico says goodbye to home fans at the FIFA World Cup 2026.
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