It may be only April 16, but the New York Mets‘ playoff odds are already dwindling quickly.
One of the richest and most talented rosters in baseball has struggled out of the gates this season after a hot spring, sitting at just 7-12. That puts the Mets last in the National League East, and they enter Friday’s series opener against the Chicago Cubs in the midst of an eight-game losing streak.
Fangraphs, which regularly releases playoff probability for each ball club, had New York at its peak in spring training at 88.6% odds of making the postseason this fall. Now, they’re sitting at just 57%, the largest drop of any team a few weeks into the campaign.
Via Anthony DiComo:
The Mets need to turn it around in a hurry.
New York Mets Are in Rough Shape
GettyCarlos Mendoza #64 of the New York Mets looks on during a pre-game ceremony to honor Jackie Robinson before the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on April 15, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. All players are wearing the number 42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
While Pete Alonso did depart this past winter, the Mets still remained active in signing new talent. Bo Bichette inked a massive deal after spending the entirety of his impressive career with the Toronto Blue Jays. Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, and Luke Weaver also joined, while they traded for Luis Robert and Freddy Peralta.
Yet, none of these moves has made a difference so far. New York is 27th in runs scored, 25th in average, and 22nd in hits. They’re essentially towards the bottom of the Majors in every offensive category. On the mound, the Mets have a 3.83 ERA, but their bullpen has been underwhelming, and the backend of their rotation — mostly Kodai Senga and David Peterson— has struggled.
Lots of Time to Turn Things Around
GettyFrancisco Lindor #12 of the New York Mets looks on during a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on April 13, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Despite the horrible start and their playoff odds taking a nose dive, this team is clearly talented enough to find its footing. Bichette is only hitting .228. Francisco Lindor and Semien are batting under .200. Juan Soto is the only consistent hitter lately, hitting .355, but he’s injured.
The Mets have had no shortage of runners in scoring position, but they rarely capitalize. New York hitting coach Troy Snitker recently spoke on the lineup’s lack of consistency, citing the need to swing at good pitches.
“We need to execute better in the game,” Snitker said to Max Goodman of NJ.com. “We need to drive the ball more. We need to swing at pitches that we can do something with. It’s just kind of a combination of those two things.”
“We need to be committed to what we’re doing,” Snitker continued. “We need to be committed to what we swing at, what we’re looking for and just stick with that the whole time, regardless of the situation.”
The Mets are just five games out of first place in the NL East. Not all is lost yet. It simply comes down to one hitter finding an offensive rhythm, and others can feed off that. It’s a trickle-down effect.
New York went just 83-79 last year, one season after playing in the NLCS. Needless to say, it would be another massive disappointment if they didn’t qualify for the postseason again.
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