The New York Mets could not be any more thrilled with how Nolan McLean’s 2026 season has gone. The right-hander has quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball, pitching to a 2.78 ERA over 45.1 innings.
McLean’s strong performance has not only put him in the National League Cy Young Award conversation but also made him the leading candidate to win Rookie of the Year.
MLB.com published a survey in which they solicited 39 experts on the Rookie of the Year race. McLean garnered 23 of the 39 first-place votes in the survey, making him the overwhelming favorite just six weeks into the season. The next closest candidate was the Cincinnati Reds‘ Sal Stewart, who got six first-place votes.
What a Rookie of the Year Win Means for Nolan McLean and the Mets
McLean was viewed as the top pitching prospect in the sport entering the 2026 season after an electrifying 2025 debut. That made him eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive, which rewards teams for playing their top prospects on Opening Day instead of manipulating service time.
Since the right-hander is an eligible prospect, he would need to satisfy one of two criteria to get the Mets a first-round draft pick in 2027:
- Win the 2026 National League Rookie of the Year Award
- Finish Top 3 in the National League Cy Young voting in 2026, 2027, or 2028
With McLean off to a great start in 2026, he puts both conditions into play and could satisfy both. A Cy Young finalist would likely result in taking home the Rookie of the Year award. The same thing happened with Paul Skenes just two seasons ago, so it’s not unprecedented.
The added intrigue for the Mets will be the placement of the potential McLean PPI pick. The club currently fields a payroll past the final threshold of Competitive Balance Tax penalties, which means their top choice will fall 10 spots unless they land a Top-6 pick in the lottery. That happened in the 2026 draft, in which their top selection dropped from No. 17 to No. 27.
Should McLean earn the Mets a PPI pick, that would give them two Top 30 selections for the 2027 MLB Draft. The organization has done a great job of developing players in recent years, so adding two premium picks should already strengthen a strong system. Those efforts have paid off with McLean, Carson Benge, and A.J. Ewing reaching the major leagues in the past calendar year.
Two-Horse Race for NL Rookie of the Year?
When MLB Pipeline released a survey on the Rookie of the Year race in January, McLean was named a leading candidate. The other two were the St. Louis Cardinals‘ JJ Wetherholt and the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Konnor Griffin. In that survey, Wetherholt was the slight favorite over McLean, 30% to 25%.
While McLean is viewed as the leading candidate to win Rookie of the Year, the season is only at its quarter point. The right-hander still has 24 starts left in the season to make his case.
Interestingly enough, McLean doesn’t lead all rookies in fWAR. Wetherholt carries that honor, as he slightly edges out McLean, 1.6 to 1.5. That is due to Wetherholt’s excellent defense at second base, which grades out at +5 defensive runs saved and +6 outs above average.
Unsurprisingly, the two leading candidates in the race have been as good as advertised. With 120-plus games to go in the season, it’s still a wide-open race. But it’s also fair to say that McLean is also in the driver’s seat as well.
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