The median price of a detached home in Marin was $1.5 million last month, a year-over-year decline of about 7%, according to the latest data from the assessor’s office.
The decline came amid a 10.6% year-over-year gain in the Bay Area as a whole, the California Association of Realtors said. The median price is the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less.
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While the county reported a price decrease, the Realtors’ association came to a different conclusion. It said the Marin median rose nearly 27% for the 12-month period, one of the higher spikes in the region.
But the association and the county base their analyses on different data. The association said the Marin County median rose from $1.2 million in January 2023 to $1.52 million last month. The county’s median figure for January 2023 was $1.6 million.
Neither the county nor the association, which do not share their data sets, could definitively explain the Realtors’ unusually low $1.2 million figure for last year.
“With the county assessor’s sales figures consistently higher than our sales figure by 15%-20% month after month, I believe the difference between our price and their price was attributed to their inclusion of newly constructed homes,” said Oscar Wei, an economist for the industry group.
Shelly Scott, the Marin County assessor, said her office triple-checked the data and found no errors.
“I am guessing the discrepancies are homes that may have been sold as a ‘pocket sale’ or off market,” Scott said. “We are picking up all sales that have been recorded in the recorder’s office. CAR is simply not aware of the off-market sales. I am confident that our numbers are correct.”
In any case, the median price for detached homes in Marin remains well below the peaks of more than $2 million in April 2022 and May 2022. The median has wobbled between $1.5 million and $1.8 million for more than a year.
Sales volume has picked up slightly, rising from 55 detached residences in January 2023 to 71 last month, the county reported. However, the county typically reports more than 100 such sales per month, and during 2022 the figure sometimes exceeded 250.
In specific areas of Marin, Belvedere led the county last month in the median price for detached homes: $8.6 million on a single sale. Other top medians included $3.34 million on three detached homes in Tiburon; $2.47 million on one sale in Corte Madera; and $1.99 million on two sales in Larkspur.
Other medians for last month included $1.69 million on eight sales in Mill Valley; $1.6 million on 24 sales in unincorporated areas; $1.49 million on 18 sales in San Rafael; $1.31 million on eight sales in Novato; $1.08 million on five sales in San Anselmo; and $937,500 on one sale in Fairfax.
The county reported no sales of detached homes last month in Ross and Sausalito.
In Marin’s condominium and townhome market, the median price last month was $875,500 on 36 sales. The prior January, it was $810,000 on 29 sales.
Around the Bay Area, only one county — Solano — had a year-over-year median price decline for detached homes last month, the California Association of Realtors said. The median fell 0.9%, to $575,000.
Other figures included $1.98 million in San Mateo County, an increase of 21.5%; $1.71 million in Santa Clara County, up 11.8%; and $1.53 million in San Francisco, up 10.5%. Sonoma County was $829,900, up 6.1%.
Statewide, the association reported a median home price of $788,940, up 5% from the prior year.
A recent uptick in mortgage rates could depress sales in the short term, said Jordan Levine, the association’s chief economist.
“Potential home sellers could hit the pause button on listing their house on the market and wait until rates begin to ease again,” Levine said. “In general, rates are expected to decline later this year, and available inventory should slowly improve throughout 2024.”
The U.S. weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.9% as of Thursday, up from 6.77% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac, the federally chartered mortgage company. A year ago, the average was 6.5%.
The association said elevated interest rates and a scarcity of properties on the market have driven home affordability in the state to a 16-year low. The organization said 15% of households could afford the $833,170 median priced in the fourth quarter of 2023. The purchase would require a minimum income of $222,800 to qualify.
In Marin, 16% of households could afford the $1.65 million median price in the fourth quarter, the association said. The qualifying minimum income was $441,200.
Marin real estate dataThe median prices for detached homes in the county over the past year.
January 2024: $1.5 millionDecember 2023: $1.56 millionNovember 2023: $1.74 millionOctober 2023: $1.75 millionSeptember 2023: $1.65 millionAugust 2023: $1.51 millionJuly 2023: $1.61 millionJune 2023: $1.7 millionMay 2023: $1.8 millionApril 2023: $1.7 millionMarch 2023: $1.67 millionFebruary 2023: $1.53 millionJanuary 2023: $1.6 million
Source: Marin County assessor’s office