The Toronto Maple Leafs of the early 2020s became the “Core Four” era. The idea of paying four star players over 50% of the team’s salary cap allocation was the brainchild of former GM Kyle Dubas.
In short, the idea relied on the premise that high-end players drove the bulk of the scoring. The remaining players were essentially replacement-level, meaning their impact was not nearly as significant.
The plan would have received praise had it actually worked. But it didn’t. The Leafs only made it out of the first round of the playoffs once during that experiment.
By the time the experiment officially ended, the idea of allocating the bulk of the cap on a handful of players was all but dead.
However, the idea is making a significant comeback. And it’s the result of the rising cap ceiling.
The first team to really embrace that idea was the Edmonton Oilers. Even with Connor McDavid’s hometown discount, the Oilers followed the Maple Leafs’ lead by allocating 35% of its cap to three players.
That’s considering that Darnell Nurse’s $9.25 million cap hit is now off the books.
Similarly, other teams are following the Maple Leafs’ lead. The San Jose Sharks will commit about $40 million on just three players next season. The Chicago Blackhawks will have over $42 million when Bowen Byram’s extension kicks in next season.
The problem is that such cap allocations have yet to yield a Stanley Cup winner.
Carolina Hurricanes Latest Example of Maple Leafs’ Failed Plan
The Carolina Hurricanes are the latest team that proved the Maple Leafs “Core Four” idea doesn’t work. The Hurricanes lack a $10 million player. In fact, the entire roster has a very similar structure throughout.
In particular, no single player’s cap hit stands out above everyone else’s. The bulk of the roster is in a similar range, with only one player signed for under $1 million this upcoming season.
Other teams like the Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, and Florida Panthers, winners of the last five Stanley Cups, have proven that a balanced cap is the best way to go.
With that evidence, why are teams still paying one or two guys far more than the rest?
The answer to that question is much more complex.
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Teams Have No Choice But to Pay
Some clubs, like the Maple Leafs at the time, have no choice but to pay. They have to lock up their young stars. San Jose and Chicago had to do it.
The Anaheim Ducks will be the next team to follow that line. The club was forced to pay Leo Carlsson an exorbitant amount, with Cutter Gauthier likely next. When Gauthier signs, which could be in excess of $12 million AAV, the club will also have another significant hit in Jackson LaCombe. That’ll be three players making around $40 million.
Even if this trend seems ludicrous, it’s the future. The rising cap is pushing teams to lock up their young players or face losing them.
Then again, the Montreal Canadiens could be the team that has defied the Maple Leafs’ model. The Habs have their entire core locked up, with Noah Dobson being their highest-paid player at $9.5 million AAV.
Perhaps the Canadiens, and not the Maple Leafs, will be the model to follow in this new cap era.
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