The Detroit Lions will be aiming to bounce back during the 2026 regular season to prove last season was an aberration. According to one NFL analyst, the schedule could really help the team achieve that.
NFL analyst Warren Sharp used projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers to calculate NFL strength of schedule this week. After the calculation, the Lions came out major winners.
“Based on projected win totals, the Detroit Lions have the easiest strength of schedule for the 2026 NFL season,” wrote Sharp.
Although they were 9-8, the Lions finished the 2025 regular season in last place of the NFC North. That means in 2026, they drew other last-placed teams from last season on their schedule.
This fall, the Lions will face the New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans. None of Detroit’s NFC North rivals will play those teams, which most pundits project as bottom feeders again in 2026.
Why Warren Sharp Called 2026 Lions Schedule Easiest in NFL
GettyNFL analyst Warren Sharp argued Dan Campbell, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions have the easiest regular season schedule in the NFL during 2026.
The last-place schedule is the easiest way to explain why the Lions will have a much easier slate this year. However, Sharp didn’t use 2025 records in his calculation for 2026 strength of schedule.
“Basing strength of schedule on last year’s records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient. NFL teams often undergo significant changes between seasons, including roster adjustments, coaching staff changes, and player development,” wrote Sharp.
“Additionally, the NFL’s 17-game season is a small sample size. Outcomes can be heavily influenced by luck, such as fumble recoveries or tipped passes.”
Instead, Sharp used projected win totals from bettors. Using that to predict strength of schedule, though, the Lions still came out with one of the easiest slates in the league this fall.
Sharp’s latest calculation showed Detroit’s schedule being the very easiest. In fact, according to bettors, the Lions schedule has grown easier since June 1.
Nothing has physically changed about Detroit’s schedule since that date. The schedule is the schedule. But every NFL team’s projected win totals have changed slightly over the summer, which has tilted the schedule even more in the Lions favor.
Meanwhile, the 2026 schedule for Detroit’s division rivals have grown more difficult.
“The Packers previously ranked as the #17 easiest schedule but have dropped to #24. This is in large part due to their schedule including games against the Lions twice, the Cowboys, the Rams, and the Texans,” wrote Sharp.
“These four teams rank in the top six of teams whose win totals have been bet most towards the over since June. As a result, the Packers’ schedule is now viewed as being more difficult than it was earlier this offseason.”
In the NFC North, the Chicago Bears have the most difficult 2026 schedule according to Sharp’s formula. Chicago has the seventh-most difficult slate in the entire league.
The Bears won the NFC North last season while the Packers finished second.
Lions Could Get Off to Hot Start in 2026
GettyRunning back Jahmyr Gibbs and the Detroit Lions could have a very fast start to the 2026 season.
Based on the way the schedule looks on paper, the Lions could use their 2025 slate to get off to a very fast start this September.
In the first five weeks, the Lions will face the Jets, Cardinals and New Orleans Saints. All three of those squads were last-placed teams last season. Furthermore, none of them have a projected win total above 7.5.
During the first five weeks, the Lions will also face the Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers. But despite winning the NFC South last season, the Panthers also have a 7.5 projected win total.
That makes the Bills matchup on the road in primetime, Detroit’s toughest matchup, by far, in the early part of 2026.
The Lions will end October with their first two division games. But that’s after a bye week. The Lions could have just one loss when they host the Packers in Week 7.
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