LAS VEGAS — Even with hotshot rookie Connor Bedard, the Blackhawks failed to collect more than 70 points for a fourth consecutive season in 2023-24. They tallied just 52, a seven-point drop-off from ’22-23.
However, Jeff Davis, the savvy NHL odds-man at Circa Sports, is a bit high on the Hawks this season and has wagered that they’ll finish with more than 73.5 points.
“It was hard to watch that team last season,” he said. “Too often, they were gonna get run out 5-1. If I were a Blackhawks fan, I would have really struggled to get through last season, Bedard being the only hope.
“But they’re going in the right direction. Now you can watch hockey games and act like you’re going to have a chance to win on most nights. Still gonna be a big dog. Still gonna lose more games than you’ll win, but I think they’re better.”
The Hawks’ first four games, all on the road, produced one triumph, 5-2 over the Oilers in which they were a +292 (or risk $100 to win $292) underdog.
Said Davis: “They’re better than San Jose, Columbus, Montreal and Anaheim, and it won’t surprise me if they finish ahead of Calgary.”
Since winning Lord Stanley’s magnificent trophy a third time in six seasons, in the summer of 2015, the Hawks have made the playoffs only three times, all first-round exits.
Kyle Davidson, starting his second full season as general manager, added forwards Tyler Bertuzzi (via free agency) and Ilya Mikheyev (trade).
Plus, Teuvo Teravainen (free agent) helped the Hawks win it all in ’14-15, and new defender Alec Martinez (free agent) has lifted the Cup three times.
Davis hailed those acquisitions, but he’s also severely direct — vital for a neutral Vegas oddsman — about the immediate future.
“They’re still bad, don’t get me wrong,” he said. “But they’re competitively bad now. They’re gonna win games. They have enough talent to win games.
“They have some young kids, some veterans, [but] they’re still a few years out from making the playoffs. I would think, however, they’re just going to be a lot better to watch this season.”
Davis tidbits
A year ago, Davis tipped us off to Bedard finishing with fewer than 74.5 points, at -115, and he totaled 61. Cash it. At -200, he tapped St. Louis to not make the playoffs. Cash it.
We checked in with him in early March, and he recommended taking Florida (at +650) to defeat either Dallas (10-1 odds) or Edmonton (+800) in the Final. The Panthers beat the Oilers in a dramatic seven games.
This season, Davis’ favorite futures purchase was Toronto, at +900, to win the Eastern Conference.
“It’s close in the East, between the Leafs, Rangers and Panthers,” he said. “I’ve seen +700 on Toronto out there to win the East, and that’s a very good bet. Their real odds of winning the East can’t be more than +500.”
On opening night, TNT’s superb studio quintet (including Wayne Gretzky) made prognostications, and all five had Edmonton in this season’s Stanley Cup Final.
Two years ago, Vegas beat Florida for the Cup, fueling the Panthers’ run to the trophy last summer. So does that give the Oilers the furious edge to return to that last round, and win it, this season?
“Well, the thing there is not only is it a popular narrative, but they’re the best team,” Davis said. “So that really helps their cause.”
If Colorado can stay above water for the rest of 2024, minus captain Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen and Jonathan Drouin, it could be a factor.
“They’re really skin-’n’-bones now,” Davis said. “But if they can get everyone back and they’re healthy, they’re pretty close to the level Edmonton can get to. Some people really like Vancouver, too, but I don’t buy in as much.”
In the East, he has bet that Detroit will finish with fewer than 90.5 points and that the Red Wings, at -150, will not make the playoffs.
“They have some good pieces, like Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and Patrick Kane looked like he got some youth injected into him last season,” Davis said. “They just don’t play a lot of defense and don’t have a good goalie.
“They got beat up pretty good [in a 6-3 home loss to Pittsburgh on Oct. 10], and I think that’s gonna happen quite frequently this season. The market is incorrect about the Red Wings; as a whole, they’re up against it.”
Dallas-Devils finale?
In Toronto, WagerTalk handicapper Carmine Bianco nabbed New Jersey, at over 101.5 points, which has climbed to 103.5 in certain shops.
He also invested in Dallas, at +600, to win the President’s Trophy.
“I think the Stars are the best team in the league,” Bianco said, “and there’s +700 out there.”
Finally, he said the Devils’ Sheldon Keefe, who can be had at +550 to +650, is a “shoo-in” to win the Jack Adams Award as the league’s best coach.
“All he needs to do is have a 100-point season and get the Devils back into the playoffs,” Bianco said.
“They missed the postseason last season, for the 10th time in 12 campaigns, and I don’t see another coach who can do enough to get it.”