The wisdom of Bill Walsh is timeless.
“Winners act like winners before they’re winners.”
“Mastery requires endless remastery.”
“A good leader is always learning.”
But the bit of wisdom I come back to again and again is Walsh’s belief that it’s better to move on from a player a year too early than a year too late.
And I can’t help but think that John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan should heed Walsh’s advice when it comes to Deebo Samuel.
This week, longtime NFL insider Jason LaCanfora reported that the Baltimore Ravens called the 49ers about trading for Samuel. I’m sure it was one of thousands of cold calls made around the league this week.
And while the Niners were not open to the idea, they should be.
(Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Area News Group)
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Of course, the price has to be right (I have some ideas there), but San Francisco should jettison their game-changing, do-it-all wide receiver this offseason.
And this has nothing to do with Brandon Aiyuk’s contract or a salary cap crunch.
It has everything to do with maximizing the return for Samuel.
This is about being a year early instead of a year late.
We all know how things end with Deebo in Santa Clara. He’s not finishing his current contract, which was signed before the 2022 season. That deal runs until the end of 2025 but has two void years attached for salary-cap manipulation purposes.
But at some point in the next two seasons, his production won’t match his contract, which is set to pay him $28 million and $24 million against the salary cap. That day might already be here.
Samuel is here for a good time, not a long time, and we’re in the twilight of the 28-year-old star’s days with San Francisco.
And while I do not doubt that he will be one of the most impactful players in the league in 2024, I also think it’s fair to say that his best football is behind him.
Samuel’s 2021 season was one of the most spectacular in recent NFL history, but he’s not going to match that kind of output again.
That said, the Niners are paying him for that kind of output.
Things have changed dramatically since Samuel’s All-Pro season. He has taken more hits and picked up more injuries, and the Niners have added more players, including their franchise quarterback, Brock Purdy.
Every quarterback wants a weapon like Samuel, but Purdy — unlike his predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo — doesn’t need him.
No, Purdy’s No. 1 receiver is his X-receiver, Brandon Aiyuk. That’s because Purdy, unlike Garoppolo, actually throws the ball outside the numbers.
(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images) Getty Images
For Garoppolo, Samuel was his first, his last, his everything, because the bumper-car receiver does his work over the middle of the field and close to the line of scrimmage. The Z receiver was effectively a running back (and a literal one) for Garoppolo, who only threw short and between the numbers. He wanted to put the ball in Samuel’s hands as fast as possible so the receiver could go to work on the defense.
That was the 49ers’ offense, and it had little resemblance to the “true” Shanahan offense — the one we saw in Houston, Cleveland, and Atlanta — which funnels the ball to the X receiver.
Purdy meanwhile wants to push the ball deep and to the sidelines. He wants to run the true Shanahan offense.
The Niners will pay Aiyuk, the X receiver, No. 1-receiver money this offseason. It might take the entire offseason, but they’ll pay him.
And if Samuel is still on the team then, they’ll have two receivers making top dollar, but only one, true No. 1 receiver. And it will be the guy wearing No. 11.
We can all see the trend: The arrow is pointing down for Samuel with the 49ers.
So get while the gettin’ is good. Get ahead of this thing.
(Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)
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The Niners can’t truly replace a player like Samuel because there’s no other player like Samuel in the league. But do the Niners need that kind of idiosyncratic player anymore?
With Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey on the roster and with Purdy at quarterback, I don’t think they do.
Now, trading Samuel would, no doubt, hurt the 49ers’ chances of returning to the Super Bowl this upcoming season.
And sure, the Niners can run through Samuel’s contract, which “expires” right as Purdy’s second contract activates in 2026, but the opportunity to pick up a serious return for him is here and now.
Well, actually, it’s after June 1 — that’s when the Niners can first reasonably trade Samuel for salary cap purposes — but the point stands.
If the team can land a first-round and day-two pick in the 2025 NFL Draft in exchange for Samuel this summer, they should take it.
There’s only one Deebo, but the college game is producing receivers at an absurd rate right now.
And trading a “No. 1” receiver has become commonplace in the modern NFL.
The Vikings knew this when they traded No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs in March 2020 and drafted Justin Jefferson at No. 22 overall a month later. It’s fair to say that the swap worked for Minnesota.
The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill in March 2022. The next year, they won the Super Bowl. (And then again the next year.)
Also in March 2022, the Packers traded Davonte Adams to the Raiders for a first and second-round pick in that year’s draft. They were a year too early there, but they look smart for making that move today.
Top receivers are demanding top dollar right at the point where they are arguably most replaceable. The NFL’s marketplace is pretty messed up. The Niners should take advantage of the teams that haven’t put two-and-two together yet.
(Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group)
I have no problem paying top players top money, and Samuel is a top player today. But no team can afford to pay two receivers top-of-the-market deals— not even a team with a quarterback making less than half of one percent of the salary cap.
Meanwhile, the Niners are sitting on 10 draft picks and pick No. 31 in the first round in April’s draft.
And while this team (as of Thursday) still has big holes to fill on defense (No. 2 corner, weak-side linebacker), they can use that first-round pick to land a No. 2 receiver for the 2024 season (they can even move up a few picks to land the guy).
Would having Samuel be better? Of course. But how often will you have Samuel moving forward? All that contact he’s sought has taken a toll on his body. How couldn’t it? And we saw how he was unable to separate in the Super Bowl. That’s not going to get better with age and more physical attrition.
The Niners can move on from Samuel, give Aiyuk that big contract and No. 1 status, and roll with North Carolina product Devontez Walker, or Florida State’s Keon Coleman, or, in a strange bit of irony, South Carolina’s Xavier Legette at No. 2 this upcoming season.
These kids are awesome. A decade ago, they’d be top-15 picks. These days, there are so many outstanding college receivers, that all three of them might fall into the second round. At least one is going to be there for the Niners at No. 31.
If Purdy is the quarterback the 49ers think he is, he’ll make it work.
If Shanahan is the offensive genius I think he is, he’ll make it work.
The kid out wide might even be a better fit for the spread-it-out offense Purdy wants to run.
And even if it doesn’t work in 2024, the 49ers can take another swing at it with whatever 2025 draft capital they land for Samuel.
In trading Samuel, the Niners would restart the clock at the wide receiver position. They might take a short-term hit to their Super Bowl odds for 2024 (I’ll let you decide how big of a hit it would be), but they could also expand that window beyond this year and next.
Too bold, too brash?
So is seeing Samuel’s contract through.
The time to make a move is this offseason.
It’s better to be a year too early than a year too late.