Sean Keeler: You know what I love most about the spring? Having my life dictated by whatever floats out from underneath Mel Kiper Jr.’s hair. Mock drafts are all fun and games, until somebody gets hurt — or until somebody gets desperate for a QB1 they’ve accidentally fallen in love with. Our man Mel’s pegged the Broncos to grab J.J. McCarthy out of Michigan with pick No. 12 next month. It’s a prediction that looks almost prescient, given how well the kid performed at the combine and how quickly the Broncos cut ties with Russell Wilson. Sean Payton needs a QB1. McCarthy needs an NFL home after helping pilot the Big Blue to a national title. So I ask of you, especially after your week spent chasing prospects down in Indy: Is McCarthy such a can’t-miss prospect that if you felt forced to make a trade in order to move up and land him, you’d happily surrender those picks?
Ryan McFadden: For starters, I think the can’t-miss quarterback prospects in this draft are Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels. But the Broncos are currently not in a position to trade that high in the draft to take those players. Everyone has been going crazy about McCarthy lately, to the point that it seems like he won’t be available when the Broncos pick at No. 12. But would I trade up to get him? Probably not. McCarthy is a good player, but I don’t understand the hype around him. If he is available at No. 12 and Denver likes him, I could see the team picking him. It’s just hard to envision Denver giving up a pick or two to move up and get him. While there are things to like about McCarthy, it’s hard to paint a picture of the type of quarterback he will be in the NFL or if he can be a Week 1 starter as a rookie. I would entertain a trade if it’s to move one spot up. But if you are talking about Denver moving up three or four spots to get him, I’m not buying that.
Keeler: True story: A very wise coach I know, an old football hand, called me out of the blue one night a couple weeks back. He wanted to talk about McCarthy after the J.J.-to-Denver buzz started cranking up. First thing out of his mouth: “Do you know who J.J. McCarthy is? He’s Jimmy Clausen.” I laughed. Then I cringed. I mean, the parallels! Nice size. Strong arm. College pedigree from a Midwest blueblood. Zero fear. Great hair. Carolina wound up taking Clausen in the second round back in 2010. He appeared in only 21 NFL games over his career, made 14 starts, won exactly one of those starts, and threw for seven scores with 14 picks. I’m not moving off No. 12 for that.
McFadden: There’s clearly a sense of desperation to find the next franchise quarterback. At the same time, you can’t force it. Denver shouldn’t fall into the hype and trade up unless they are in love with McCarthy. Because trading away picks to move up for a player you are not completely sold on will set them back even further. I can see the Broncos trading back more than anything. Oregon’s Bo Nix could be available outside of the 12th pick. The Broncos could go down a few spots and take Nix while adding more picks to their arsenal to fill other roster needs such as tight end, left tackle, cornerback and wide receiver.
Keeler: I understand the “high ceiling” thing with McCarthy. I do. Kid just turned 21. He’s got more tread on the tires. He ran a pro-style system at Michigan under one of the best pro-style QB tutors around in Jim Harbaugh. After what he pulled off this past fall, the NFL stage isn’t going to seem too big, nor the lights too bright. Love that. Here’s what I don’t love: 2.8-to-1. That’s McCarthy’s lifetime TD-to-picks ratio with the Wolverines against ranked opponents. Versus everybody else? 5.4-to-1. J.J. won a ton of big games. He also didn’t have to do a lot of heavy lifting to get Michigan over the line in those tilts.
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McFadden: That’s what concerns me about McCarthy. He wasn’t asked to do much while running Michigan’s offense. How would he fare in a situation where he needs to rely heavily on his arm to pull off a win? I will say this: McCarthy can fit into Payton’s offense. Run-heavy, with a mix of play action. If the Broncos somehow end up with McCarthy, Payton will need to have patience in his development, and the Broncos better do a good job surrounding him with talent. You can’t draft McCarthy and just assume everything in Broncos Country is fine. This is going to be a long process.
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