This is the time of year when most teams around the NFL are feeling good about the upcoming season. However, less than half of the teams will actually make the playoffs.
The Las Vegas Raiders are one of the most interesting teams heading into the season. They were the worst team in the NFL in 2025, but have an exciting new head coach and added quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick.
They have a chance to be among the most improved teams in the NFL, but they still have a lot to prove. What doesn’t help them is that the AFC West is stacked. The Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos both made the playoffs last season. Though they didn’t make the playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs have won three Super Bowls in the last seven years.
Even if the Raiders are good, it’s going to be very difficult not to finish in fourth place. Former head coach Jon Gruden is still loyal to the franchise, but even he’s predicting the Raiders to finish in last place.
“I think the Raiders are going to improve,” Gruden said on “Wake Up Barstool.” “But unfortunately for the silver and black, this is a very tough division with established coaches and quarterbacks.”
Pat McAfee Much Higher on Raiders
Gruden might not be fully bought into the Raiders right now, but there are others who are higher. ESPN’s Pat McAfee is a massive fan of Mendoza and is excited about what the team is building.
He called the Raiders a “brand new” football team and offered high praise for Mendoza.
“He’s tough. He’s smart. He can spin it. The ball looks small in his hands,” McAfee said on the “Pat McAfee Show.” “We wondered if he was going to be able to throw an NFL ball. Yeah, I’m thinking he’s pretty comfortable. We are very firm believers in this guy.”
Can Raiders Win Over 5.5 Games?
Right now, the betting lines have the Raiders’ over/under for wins at 5.5 games. Las Vegas only won three games last season, so four or five wins would be an improvement.
However, the Raiders likely wouldn’t feel great about the season if they didn’t get to at least six wins. Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report isn’t willing to predict the Raiders getting the over on 5.5 wins.
“I really want to take the over here. I feel good about the Raiders, and they have a lot of reasons to be excited and optimistic about their trajectory,” Gagnon wrote. “A new coaching staff and two new quarterbacks—one experienced vet and one high-upside top pick—should help, and elite defender Maxx Crosby remains on the roster for now as well.
“All that said, they’ll once again face a tough road with a difficult schedule in that division, and this is a team that has won seven total games the last two seasons. They went 3-14 despite remaining relatively healthy in 2025, and there will almost certainly be growing pains in 2026.”
If Mendoza starts and he’s good, it’s easy to see the Raiders getting to at least six wins, but there are a lot of variables right now.
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