Sometimes you have to risk it to get the biscuit.
ESPN senior NFL draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr predicted that the New York Jets would do exactly that with the No. 16 overall pick in his mock draft.
He mocked Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson to the Jets in the first round with their second selection.
“Recall that the Jets were left out of the quarterback game when they were on the board the first time at No. 2; there just isn’t another top-five QB prospect in this class right now beyond Fernando Mendoza,” Kiper bluntly explained.
“Let’s be clear, though: I do have some concerns about Simpson. He has 15 career starts, which means this pick would come with a lot of risk. That’s just not enough game experience. We also can’t ignore his dip in performance in the second half of the 2025 season. But there’s also no questioning his upside. Simpson has good pocket presence, and he fired 28 touchdown passes and only five interceptions this past season. If the Jets can surround him with talent on offense and develop him, he has a high ceiling,” Kiper wrote.
This Would Be Some Risky Business for the Jets
The Jets don’t have a quarterback on the roster who has the potential to be the long-term answer.
Simpson would change that dynamic for the Jets, but it would come with a ton of risk. When Oregon QB Dante Moore was considering entering the draft, ESPN’s Rich Cimini shared a strong warning to the Jets.
“He is only 20 years old, he has got only 18 college starts, and if you look at the recent first-round quarterbacks with fewer than 20 starts — it is not a promising field. I’ll read some names: Anthony Richardson, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, Mitch Trubisky, Ryan Tannehill, [and] Cam Newton,” Cimini explained the January 8 episode of the “Flight Deck” podcast.
“That is going back to 2011. All of the first-round quarterbacks with fewer than 20 college starts. The only star of that group is Cam Newton. Ryan Tannehill had a solid long career. The rest of them [were] either busts or underachievers. So beware of the college quarterback with very few starts,” Cimini added.
That same warning holds for Simpson, as it did for Moore.
Simpson, 23, is an older prospect, but without much experience. He has been at Alabama for four years, but he bided his time as a backup before bursting on the scene this season.
He completed 64.5% of his passes, threw for 3,567 passing yards, and had a 28 touchdown to five interception ratio.
Evaluating the Other Kiper Predicted Jets Selection
With the No. 2 overall pick in the first round, Kiper predicted that the Jets would select Ohio State defender Arvell Reese.
“The Jets ranked 31st in sacks with 26, and Will McDonald IV was the only player on the roster with more than four of them (eight). Jermaine Johnson is heading into his fifth-year-option season, meaning the depth chart could be thinning out on the edge. With coach Aaron Glenn’s defensive background, getting that unit right will be an offseason priority. Reese played off the ball before moving into an edge rusher role in 2025, and he has the traits to make an impact there in the NFL. I love his instincts and burst. (And if New York wanted him at linebacker, there’s a void there with Quincy Williams entering free agency.),” Kiper wrote.
“For the Jets fans screaming that the team needs a quarterback, I’m with you. There just isn’t another passer worthy of a top-two selection right now after Dante Moore decided to go back to Oregon for another season. Perhaps that changes. Maybe the Jets go get a veteran and make this irrelevant anyway, waiting for 2027, instead, when they have three first-rounders. But right now, New York is better off taking the top defensive prospect on the board,” Kiper explained. “But getting linebacker Arvell Reese there, then getting the class’ QB2 here? That’s a pretty good first round for New York.”
The Jets’ defense stunk in 2025. Getting the best defensive player on the board makes a ton of sense.
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