Spain’s 1-0 extra-time victory over Argentina did more than deliver La Roja its second men’s World Cup championship. It also reshaped the betting market for football’s leading individual prize, with Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane moving past Lionel Messi as the new Ballon d’Or favorite. Ferran Torres scored the final’s lone goal in the 106th minute after Argentina entered extra time with 10 men, The Guardian reports.
Oddschecker spokesman Chris Rogers explained how quickly the market changed after Spain ended Argentina’s attempt to win consecutive World Cups: “Harry Kane has emerged as the favourite to clinch the Ballon d’Or with his odds tumbling from +600 to +200. Punters have targeted three names in the race for the prestigious individual honour: Kane, Messi, and Yamal who have split a whopping 81% of today’s bets. Golden Ball winner Rodri is +300 to take home the award and was favoured by 9% of bets.”
Messi’s World Cup Loss Changes Ballon d’Or Market
Messi entered the final as the +100 betting favorite, but the loss sent his price out to +400. Those odds carry a 20% implied probability, placing him behind Kane and Spain standouts Rodri and Lamine Yamal.
Argentina resisted Spain through the opening 90 minutes, although Enzo Fernández’s second yellow card made the reigning champions’ task much harder. Torres finally created the breakthrough 16 minutes into extra time, adding another major trophy to Spain’s European Championship victory from two years earlier.
The defeat brought an emotional conclusion to what will likely represent Messi’s last World Cup appearance. The entire stadium applauded as Messi, crying as he walked forward, accepted his runners-up medal.
Even so, bettors have not abandoned him. Messi attracted 28% of the Ballon d’Or wagers placed during the day, the highest individual share listed by Oddschecker. Kane drew 27%, while Yamal received 26%. Together, that trio commanded 81% of the day’s action.
The contrast defines Messi’s current position. The odds now rank three players above him, yet the betting public still supports his candidacy after he carried Argentina to another World Cup final.
Harry Kane Leads Rodri and Lamine Yamal in Odds
Kane’s move from +600 before kickoff to +200 afterward gives him an implied 33% chance of winning the award. That puts the Bayern striker alone at the top of the market, even though Spain’s championship could strengthen the cases of Rodri and Yamal, per Yahoo.
Rodri won the tournament’s Golden Ball and lifted the World Cup as Spain’s captain. His +300 price leaves him tied with Yamal, the Barcelona winger whose 26% betting share sits far above Rodri’s 9%. Both players carry a 25% implied chance, according to the supplied market.
Kylian Mbappé follows Messi at +600, which represents a 14% implied probability. He accounted for 5% of the bets placed. Michael Olise sits at +1600 with a 6% implied chance, while Ousmane Dembélé and Jude Bellingham each stand at +2000, or 5%.
The market does not settle the Ballon d’Or debate, and Spain’s two leading candidates have strong cases after winning football’s biggest international prize. Still, it captures the immediate shift caused by the final. Messi went into the match as the favorite. Kane emerged from it in pole position, while Rodri and Yamal closed the gap behind him. The final did not end this year’s award debate. It gave the race a new leader.
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