The Vegas Golden Knights‘ 2026 Stanley Cup run has largely depended on luck. Yes, Vegas is a good hockey team. But as one study has shown, the team’s success, in particular getting past a powerhouse like the Colorado Avalanche, has boiled down to getting the breaks going their way.
A new study published by the folks at casino.org looked at the NHL Luck Index. Interestingly enough, the Golden Knights have ranked #1 in the aforementioned index.
The Index looked at various aspects, including so-called “puck luck,” goaltending, scoring, and survival odds. When considering how high Vegas ranks in those categories, it makes sense that the club has been able to get past upstart teams like the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks, while beating top teams like Colorado.
According to the data, the Golden Knights have registered an 89.1 Puck-Luck Score and an 86.0 NHL Luck Index. That explains a lot of what the eye test has shown. For instance, Game 3’s fortuitous bounce in double overtime of Game 3 against the Carolina Hurricanes falls perfectly in line with this assessment.
It’s worth pointing out that the Puck-Luck Index hinges on indicators such as shooting percentage, save percentage, goals above expected, goals prevented above expected, goal differential, and expected goal differential.
While the numbers are not inherently “lucky,” a goal such as Game 3’s winner against the Hurricanes is one such example of a goal that was above expected.
While it’s true that “you have to be good to be lucky,” it doesn’t hurt the Golden Knights to have breaks going their way.
Carolina Hurricanes Have Been Opposite of Golden Knights
The other team playing in the Stanley Cup Final, the Carolina Hurricanes, hasn’t been quite as lucky as the Golden Knights.
The numbers paint a much different picture in terms of “luck.” The Puck-Luck Index shows a 47.4% for the Canes, with a 61.7 NHL Luck Index score. Those numbers show that the Hurricanes have won games based purely on their performance on the ice, while not necessarily getting lucky bounces going their way.
In fact, anyone seeing the action on the ice in the Stanley Cup Final can attest that the Canes have been extremely unlucky. When Vegas hasn’t gotten the bounces, the Hurricanes have dominated, with Game 4 on Tuesday night being a classic example.
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Vegas Will Need More Than Luck to Win Stanley Cup
Luck can only get a team so far in the Stanley Cup playoffs. To actually win, a team has to be good.
That’s been the case for the Vegas Golden Knights. They’ve played well enough to hang long enough in games to where lucky bounces can make all the difference in the world.
During the Colorado series, the Golden Knights held back the Avalanche’s vaunted offense just long enough for their veteran leaders to step up late in games. The Avalanche couldn’t scare up the same kind of late-game heroics, largely due to the Knights’ excellent third-period shutdown play.
Ultimately, the Golden Knights, while getting a little help along the way, will need their skill and experience to emerge as the driving force behind their chances of taking home their second championship in team history.
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