The Leo Carlsson contract has the potential to change life in the NHL moving forward, but particularly in Anaheim. Potentially, it could even be the blueprint for Cutter Gauthier’s next deal.
Former NHL defenseman Keith Yandle believes life is about to become more difficult for general manager Pat Verbeek. On Monday’s edition of the “Spittin’ Chiclets” podcast, the former NHL iron man suggested that the Ducks star winger has his sights set on Leo Carlsson money.
“I was fed a little tidbit that Cutter Gauthier will not be taking one dollar less than what Leo Carlsson [received],” Yandle said on Monday’s episode.
Is Cutter Gauthier worth $18 million per season?
Probably not, no. It’s hard to imagine that any team would be willing to hand out $18 million to Gauthier. While he is a former center, he’s primarily found his success as a goal-scorer on the wing in Anaheim.
Still, he’s a former top-five selection, only 22 and already has a 40-goal campaign under his belt. In a league where scoring is extremely difficult, Gauthier already ranks among the best offensive players. There’s plenty of runway for him to continue improving, which could make him a 50-goal scorer down the road.
What does it mean if Cutter Gauthier wants $18 million per season?
Eventually, this will change, but no team has won the Stanley Cup in the salary cap era with a skater earning more than $10 million annually. Anaheim would have two players making nearly double the threshold of the highest-paid Cup-winning skaters of this era. Already, that’s an enormous concern.
In the short-term, if Anaheim agreed to that contract with Gauthier, the Ducks would have nearly 35 percent of their salary cap tied up in two players. The cap is rising quickly, and it is projected to be $123 million by 2028-29. That’s still a lot tied up in two players. Secondly, it doesn’t provide the Ducks any margin for error internally or externally.
Internally, they’d have to make sure their evaluations and contracts are airtight. The Ducks couldn’t afford any wasted cap space. Externally, they’d have to hope that no major global event could harm the league’s projected growth. COVID-19 interrupted two league years, resulting in a multi-year flat cap that limited salary growth. That harmed teams who had recently signed large contracts. Teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs had even less flexibility than anticipated.
If Anaheim agrees to that number, what happens next?
The Anaheim Ducks have a little more than $9 million in salary cap space with a projected roster of 13 forwards, seven defenseman and three goalies. To fit Gauthier, someone would have to go down to the AHL. As a result, the Ducks could add anywhere from $812,500 to $1.1 million to that cap space number. That still doesn’t get them close to signing Gauthier.
Anaheim would have to move at least two contracts to create enough space to sign Gauthier in Yandle’s scenario. That could mean trading at least one of the forwards Mikael Granlund ($7 million), Chris Kreider ($6.5 million) and Alex Killorn ($6.25 million). If the Ducks only traded one of those three, they would also need to trade a forward like Frank Vatrano or Ryan Poehling. The Ducks would be gutting their depth to make such a move, harming their short-term aspirations.
Could Cutter Gauthier play for another team next season?
It’s possible, but it won’t be via an offer sheet. Gauthier, a restricted free agent, is not eligible for an offer sheet this summer. That harms his leverage, since the Ducks don’t have to worry about another team forcing their hand.
If the Ducks decided it wasn’t worth gutting their team to retain Gauthier, they could look to trade him. Even with these theoretical contract demands in mind, his value on the trade market would be enormous. He has no trade protection and isn’t eligible for trade protection until 2031.
This would be a shrewd, calculating move by GM Pat Verbeek to regain some control over this situation. Several teams would have the cap space, assets and desire to land Gauthier in a trade. Per PuckPedia, only five teams would have the cap space to add an $18 million salary cap without taking money back. There are teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins that would likely want to include money going the other way to make a deal like this work.
Gauthier could take less money to stay in Anaheim.
Assuming Keith Yandle’s source is correct, that doesn’t mean Gauthier is a lock to earn a contract worth $18 million annually. The Ducks still hold the cards on a player who can’t force a trade to a specific team and can’t sign an offer sheet.
If they can’t agree on a deal like Carlsson’s, the Ducks and Gauthier could work on a shorter-term deal. This could look similar to what Matthew Tkachuk signed for in Calgary in 2019. Tkachuk signed a three-year, $7 million deal after his entry-level contract. At the time, that was worth 8.59 percent of the cap, according to PuckPedia. A similar deal now would come in at $8,933,600, which is just shy of what Anaheim currently has in cap space.
Even if he signed that number on a one-year deal, it would allow Anaheim and Gauthier to punt the issue and return to the negotiating table. The Ducks are expected to have closer to $40 million in cap space next summer, according to PuckPedia.
There are, of course, multiple negatives to an approach like this. On a three-year deal, Gauthier would be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent eligible to sign an offer sheet the next time he’s available for free agency. It’s also possible the salary cap is well beyond the current $123 million projection, meaning Gauthier’s demands could well exceed an $18 million per season ask. Consequently, it might make more sense to sign him now for that reason.
Whether Keith Yandle’s source is right or not, the Ducks have plenty of work left to do this summer. And whether they intended it or not, Philadelphia’s swing-for-the-fences failed Leo Carlsson offer sheet is reverberating across the league.
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