Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza’s NFL draft projections have the Heisman Trophy winner as a heavy favorite to be the No. 1 pick. This means the Las Vegas Raiders could soon be replacing Geno Smith with Mendoza in the coming months if the latest NFL mock drafts prove true.
Smith proved to be an expensive experiment gone wrong, and his future remains even more uncertain after Las Vegas fired Pete Carroll. The legendary coach pushed to trade for Smith in one of his first major moves with the Raiders, reuniting the former Seattle Seahawks.
This reunion led to just three wins in 2025 and could ultimately usher in the Mendoza era in Vegas.
Here’s what you need to know about Mendoza’s NFL draft stock.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza Is a Heavy Favorite To Be the No. 1 Pick in the NFL Draft 2026
After transferring from Cal, Mendoza has accumulated quite a resume at Indiana. After 20 games at Cal, Mendoza saved his best ball for the Big Ten.
Heading into the Peach Bowl matchup against Oregon, Mendoza has thrown for 3,172 yards, 36 touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 72.3% of his passes in 14 appearances during the 2025 season. Mendoza also added 256 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground this season.
The star’s most important stats involve his winning ways with the Hoosiers. Mendoza led Indiana to an undefeated regular season, Big Ten title and also secured the Heisman Trophy.
Fernando Mendoza NFL Draft Rumors: Indiana QB Predicted to Replace Raiders Geno Smith as No. 1 Pick
There are plenty of teams atop the NFL draft order who have a potential need at quarterback, headlined by the Raiders, New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns among others. It is Las Vegas who will set the tone after holding the tiebreaker for the No. 1 pick. Like most mock drafts, ESPN’s Jordan Reid believes the Raiders will take Mendoza with No. 1 pick.
“The Raiders haven’t drafted a QB in the first round since 2007 (JaMarcus Russell),” Reid wrote in a January 6, 2026, NFL mock draft. “They’re in desperate need of a franchise quarterback after the Geno Smith trade didn’t work out, and Mendoza provides a long-term solution for a franchise that has been looking for a QB since Derek Carr was released following the 2022 season.
“Mendoza’s poise, toughness and accuracy stood out in his lone season with the Hoosiers, as he won the Heisman Trophy while leading them to a 14-0 record. With tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders have building blocks on offense that would help Mendoza thrive right away.”
Raiders QB Geno Smith’s $75 Million Contract Runs Through the 2026 Season
Mendoza is a heavy favorite to be the No. 1 pick at -390 in the NFL draft odds, per FanDuel. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is a distant second in the odds at +340.
As for the Raiders, the franchise faces a decision on Smith. Even if Las Vegas drafts Mendoza or another top quarterback, the Raiders could still keep Smith in 2026.
The reason is Smith’s two-year, $75 million contract runs through the 2026 season. Las Vegas would take an $18.5 million dead cap hit if the franchise cuts ties with the quarterback this season, per Spotrac.
There is no dead cap hit if Las Vegas opts to do so in 2027, meaning Smith could serve as a high-priced backup quarterback next season.
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