The Atlanta Falcons are one of the few teams in the NFL that still have an open quarterback competition.
The 2026 NFL season is just over a month away, and the Falcons have yet to name their starter. It’s a clear two-man race between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., but with Tua battling an unforeseen back issue at training camp and Michael Penix Jr. still recovering from a torn ACL, the Falcons’ QB situation is less than ideal.
However, many NFL insiders/analysts believe that the starting job will likely go to Tua Tagovailoa, and a recent prediction reflects that.
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Falcons’ Tua Tagovailoa Predicted to be QB1
GettyFLOWERY BRANCH, GEORGIA – MAY 27: Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Atlanta Falcons runs through drills alongside Tua Tagovailoa #1 as head coach Kevin Stefanski looks on during OTA’s at IBM Performance Field on May 27, 2026 in Flowery Branch, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
Here is what NFL reporter Ian Rapoport had to say after going to Falcons’ training camp this week:
“I was in Atlanta yesterday and my general feel is that Tua will be the starter for Week 1,” said Rapoport on an ESPN appearance. “Penix has not been cleared, they’re having a quarterback battle but that’s kind of what it feels like to me.”
Even if Michael Penix Jr. is cleared to throw soon, the starting job may still belong to Tua.
BleacherReport’s Zach Bachar added (about Tua’s recent training camp performance):Â
“While Tagovailoa was also limited at the beginning of camp due to back issues, he returned to 11-on-11 drills on Monday. Considering the 28-year-old’s recent time spent with the rest of the Falcons’ first-team offense as well as his six seasons of experience in Miami, he could win the positional battle. Tagovailoa is coming off a 2025 campaign in which he completed 67.7 percent of his throws for 2,660 yards and 20 touchdowns, getting picked off 15 times.”
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Looking at the Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix Jr. Competition
There are a lot of storylines coming out of Falcons training camp, but when you don’t have a certified starter either named or declared, the QB battle is always going to dominate headlines.
However, the fact of the matter is that Tua Tagovailoa has likely been the frontrunner to start ever since the Falcons signed him to a one-year deal.
Penix Jr. tore his ACL halfway through the 2025 season, and his Week 1 status has been in doubt ever since. Now, when Penix Jr. does return healthy, then a separate conversation can be had about who the Falcons’ starting QB will be, but that will likely depend on how well (or how poorly) Tua Tagovailoa is playing.
The Falcons open up their regular season with a Sept. 13 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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