Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t given Atlanta Falcons fans much reason for optimism toward the 2026 season this summer. His early performances during the preseason have therefore left doubts about his future in Atlanta.
It’s still just the preseason, though, which means Tagovailoa could always turn things around once the regular season begins. In fact, ESPN’s Dan Graziano just laid out a scenario, unlikely as it may be, in which the maligned quarterback flips the script and cashes in.
In his 2027 quarterback predictions for ESPN, Graziano ran through best- and worst-case outcomes for 16 teams with questions under center. For the Falcons, the best case is a bold one.
ESPN’s Long-Shot Scenario Has Tua Tagovailoa Cashing In
Graziano’s long-shot outcome imagines everything breaking right for Tagovailoa in Atlanta.
“Tagovailoa turns out to be an excellent fit for Stefanski’s offense and has a good year,” Graziano wrote. “The Falcons win the NFC South for the first time since 2016 and make the playoffs for the first time since 2017.”
The reward, in that scenario, would be a new contract.
“After the season, the Falcons and Tagovailoa agree on a Daniel Jones- or Baker Mayfield-style contract extension that keeps him there a couple of years more.”
Those recent bounce-back deals came in at two-years, $88 million for Jones and three-years, $100 million for Mayfield, per Spotrac.
For a quarterback playing on a veterans minimum salary in 2026, that would be a stunning turnaround. The Falcons landed Tagovailoa for next to nothing this offseason because the Dolphins remained on the hook for the bulk of his guaranteed money, a low-risk flier on a former Pro Bowler.
Graziano’s long shot is essentially the dream version of that bet paying off.
Why It Remains a Long Shot for Tua Tagovailoa
Graziano labeled it a long shot for a reason. His most likely outcome looks far different.
“Tagovailoa starts the season but struggles with health and/or performance, and the Falcons turn to Penix once he is healthy to continue their assessment of whether he can be their long-term answer,” Graziano wrote, adding that Atlanta’s new regime would then likely draft a quarterback early in 2027.
The early evidence points that direction, and Falcons fans have noticed. Tagovailoa played poorly in his preseason debut, going 3-of-5 for 22 yards with a fumbled snap, and he followed it with a rough joint practice against the Indianapolis Colts that included a pick-six and multiple would-be sacks.
Colts’ reporter Kevin Bowen went as far as to call his performance “absolutely horrific.”
As of now, the Falcons are still waiting on Michael Penix Jr. to be cleared for 11-on-11 work as he recovers from a torn ACL, which is the only reason Tagovailoa is the presumed Week 1 starter.
Still, the long-shot case isn’t pure fantasy. Head coach Kevin Stefanski built his reputation getting the most out of veteran quarterbacks, and Tagovailoa would be throwing to one of the league’s best skill groups in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
The path is narrow. Tagovailoa would have to become a version of himself Atlanta hasn’t seen in two years, on a roster with real holes.
The real question would be if Atlanta fans would embrace this type of commitment. Tagovailoa has proven to be wildly inconsistent over his career. Minus Steve Bartkowski and Matt Ryan, that’s what the franchise has been dealing with throughout its entire history.
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