Diamondbacks’ $7.5 Million Gamble Is Turning Into a Massive Bargain

The Arizona Diamondbacks enter June holding onto a playoff spot. One of the biggest contributors has been Michael Soroka’s impressive season.

The Diamondbacks took a gamble on the oft-injured right-hander, inking him to a $7.5 million guarantee in December. It’s a deal that looks prescient in hindsight, as Soroka is on track for the best season of his career since 2019.

After 11 starts, he has a 3.25 ERA and a 2.85 FIP in 11 starts and 61 innings. He has a strong chance to represent Arizona at the 2026 MLB All-Star Game, along with superstar right fielder Corbin Carroll.


Michael Soroka Gamble Paying Off for the Diamondbacks

The strong season is not only good for the Diamondbacks but also for Soroka’s future earnings. He’s already earned $500K in incentives this season after making 10 starts. If he can get to 25 starts, he can max out at $2 million.

Even in that scenario, this deal is looking like a bargain for Arizona. Soroka has been the Diamondbacks’ best starter this year at a maximum salary of $9.5 million. That comes despite shelling a lot of money to bring back Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. As a result of his strong performance, the Diamondbacks moved Brandon Pfaadt to the bullpen when Kelly returned from injury.

Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors posted an update on Arizona’s option decisions for the offseason. Soroka is on track to post 177 innings, which would be a career-high. That would go a long way in quelling any durability concerns that have dogged the right-hander throughout his career. Since his rookie season in 2019, the right-hander has thrown no more than 89 innings in a single season.

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The Diamondbacks and Soroka have a mutual $10 million option for 2026. Mutual options are rarely ever exercised by both the player and the team. Barring injury, Soroka is likely headed for free agency following the season. And it should be a more lucrative one for the right-hander.

The underlying metrics also support the right-hander’s work. Soroka is on track for the lowest walk rate (5.5%) of his career while maintaining a solid 23.5% strikeout rate. The 18.0 K-BB% is on track to be a career-high, and just in time for him to secure a potential multiyear deal in what Franco projects to be a weak starting pitcher market beyond Tarik Skubal.


What’s Changed for Michael Soroka in 2026

The biggest change compared to 2025 has been widening platoon splits. That comes with increased usage of his sinker and slurve, especially to right-handed hitters. The sinker and slurve combine for over 60% of their pitches to same-handed hitters. As such, his OPS vs. right-handed hitters has dropped from .622 to .540 in 2026.

Another change was the introduction of a cutter. That pitch was designed to expand his mix against opposite-handed hitters and give them two different fastball types to deal with. However, the mix has resulted in slightly poorer performance against left-handers. Opposing lefties have seen their OPS climb from .727 to .756.

It’s worth noting that the OPS jump is a result of a higher batting average. Lefties are hitting .288, buoyed by a .358 BABIP. Otherwise, the slugging percentage is down four points, and the walk rate is down 2.6%. It’s unclear how things will look at the end of the season. While Soroka’s effectiveness looks worse on the surface to left-handers, it’s driven by an unsustainable BABIP spike.

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