dfsPro Daily: Fantasy Basketball Analysis for Tuesday, March 5

Well, we’d love to play this lineup tonight, but unfortunately we’re just playing thumbs, so we have to pick one or two of the above. This segment is simple: I’m goint to help you find the star to headline your team. If you’re playing a DraftKings Showdown Captain contest, it’s time to pick your captain. If not, you’ll still need a high-salaried player for your lineup.

Luka Doncic  ($12,200) – 69 Projected Points

69 fantasy points is nothing to scoff at, so if Doncic plays tonight you should probably pick him. The Mavs are playing the Indiana Pacers, which means there will be a lot of possessions and not a lot of defense. A point guard like Doncic should be able to pick the Pacers apart.

Kyrie Irving  ($8,900) – 41 Projected Points

Kyrie could have a good game, but we have to be discerning. We can get his projected production from cheaper players, so let’s find someone else on this list.

Jayson Tatum  ($9,700) – 49 Projected Points

Tatum is pretty expensive for a guy whose team is so good that he doesn’t need to be a superstar to win. He will put up points regardless — he’s that good — but I think there are better choices in this range, even with Jaylen Brown questionable.

Victor Wembanyama  ($10,700) – 59 Projected Points

Wembanyama is one of the highest-salaried players on tonight’s slate, for good reason. Not only is he most of the Spurs offense and defense, but Wembanyama is also playing against Rockets center Alperen Sengun tonight. Sengun is a good player, but will not be able to stop any of Wembanyama’s attempts.

Bam Adebayo  ($8,400) – 41 Projected Points

Adebayo will have more shots than usual, since the Heat have a few notable injuries. I’m not sure he’ll really make his mark on this game against the Pistons, though.

Jalen Brunson  ($9,700) – 37 Projected Points

Our model is certainly underestimating Brunson’s potential because he got injured on the first play of his last game, but I would still shy away from Brunson at this price tag, since he is questionable to play.

Paolo Banchero  ($8,600) – 43 Projected Points

Banchero gets a thumbs up because of his low salary and high potential. He’s had 29 points in his last two games, both against bad defenses (Detroit and Utah). The Magic play the Hornets tonight, so he will face similarly low levels of resistance.

Dejounte Murray  ($9,400) – 51.66 Projected Points 

Murray has been on a bit of a tear recently with Trae Young out, which is why his salary is so high. If Murray can actually deliver this kind of production, this is incredible value. Be wary, though, that he might be matched up with Josh Hart, who is quite the defensive pest. I’m probably not going to select Murray tonight, but you should if you can afford it.

DFS Budget Picks

You’ll need some very low-salary players to play next to your stars, so let’s go over some of my favorite picks for today.

Sam Merrill ($4,100)

The Cavaliers are in desparate need of guard play after Donovan mitchell wsa added to an injury list that already included Ty Jerome, Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, and Caris Levert. Merrill can shoot, so he will be able to give Daruis Garland some spacing against the Celtics.

Julian Champagnie ($3,700)

It’s OK if you don’t know who Champagnie is. He could get over 20 fantasy points, which is well worth it for a player of his salary. If you’ve blown all your cash on Doncic and Wwmbanyama, Champagnie could limp over the finish line for you.

Dean Wade ($3,200)

Wade is the ultimate budget pick. The Cavaliers are shorthanded, but only really in the guard spot (Wade is a forward/center). Nonetheless, he can shoot the ball, so he could help combat the red-hot Boston Celtics. Give Dean Wade a shot.

Game by game betting tips for Tuesday, March 5

Orlando Magic @ Charlotte Hornets

The Orlando Magic have a forecast 76% chance to win against The Charlotte Hornets with a spread of -8.5/8.5 and an over/under of 209.0. The Orlando Magic are 1 – 0 against The Charlotte Hornets in the 2023-24 Season.

Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers

The Boston Celtics have a forecast 69% chance to win against The Cleveland Cavaliers with a spread of -6.0/6.0 and an over/under of 216.5. The Boston Celtics are 2 – 0 against The Cleveland Cavaliers in the 2023-24 Season.

Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat

The Miami Heat have a forecast 85% chance to win against The Detroit Pistons with a spread of -11.5/11.5 and an over/under of 219.0. The Miami Heat are 1 – 0 against The Detroit Pistons in the 2023-24 Season.

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks

The New York Knicks have a forecast 61% chance to win against The Atlanta Hawks with a spread of -3.5/3.5 and an over/under of 217.5. The New York Knicks are 2 – 0 against The Atlanta Hawks in the 2023-24 Season.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets

The Philadelphia 76ers have a forecast 56% chance to win against The Brooklyn Nets with a spread of -2.0/2.0 and an over/under of 216.5. The Philadelphia 76ers are 1 – 1 against The Brooklyn Nets in the 2023-24 Season.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors

The New Orleans Pelicans have a forecast 75% chance to win against The Toronto Raptors with a spread of -8.0/8.0 and an over/under of 229.5. The New Orleans Pelicans are 1 – 0 against The Toronto Raptors in the 2023-24 Season.

San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets have a forecast 74% chance to win against The San Antonio Spurs with a spread of -7.5/7.5 and an over/under of 230.0. The Houston Rockets are 1 – 1 against The San Antonio Spurs in the 2023-24 Season.

Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have a forecast 64% chance to win against The Indiana Pacers with a spread of -4.5/4.5 and an over/under of 245.5. The Dallas Mavericks are 0 – 1 against The Indiana Pacers in the 2023-24 Season.

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

The Denver Nuggets have a forecast 80% chance to win against The Phoenix Suns with a spread of -9.5/9.5 and an over/under of 226.0. The Denver Nuggets are 1 – 0 against The Phoenix Suns in the 2023-24 Season.