The Dallas Stars are no strangers to overcoming an early deficit in the playoffs. After all, the last time the Stars won a Stanley Cup playoff Game 1 was in 2020, and already the Semifinals series between the Stars and the Edmonton Oilers has been a repeat performance with Connor McDavid securing the Oilers’ 3-2 win in double overtime.
As the third round commences, a surprisingly competitive match-up of two very different teams has fans on the edge of their seats. The Oilers, a team stacked with high-scoring superstars such as Leon Draisaitl and McDavid, seek to overwhelm the Stars with a barrage of offensive rushes, consistent shots on goal, and a finishing capability from their top forward lines, unlike any other team in the league. In contrast, the Stars have a roster of young, hungry talent, a special teams system that was lethal against the Colorado Avalanche, and great goaltending.
The Dallas Stars have been languishing in the Western Division for the past few years, duking it out amongst a group of teams that are seen as less competitive compared to the Eastern Division, and, at times, struggling to gain real traction in the postseason. The Oilers have, in recent years, been in contention for the Semifinals and Finals, but have always seemed to run out of steam towards the end of the playoffs.
It’s a different story this year for both the Oilers and Stars, with each showing a strong promise towards being able to maintain their winning ways, which is why this match-up is so exciting. Success for the Stars is a very real possibility; if they’re able to utilize what brought the team to victory in previous rounds.
Wyatt Johnston and Connor McDavid on the ice
Young Talent Versus Top-End Talent
It’s not uncommon for teams to strategically send players up and down ahead of the playoffs to construct a well-balanced roster, nor is it out of the ordinary to lean on trades and transactions to bolster a preexisting lineup. What is unusual is forgoing trades entirely, like the Stars. The Stars have instead reached for depth within their Texas Hockey system and utilized roster activations. The first of the Stars’ significant moves was the activation of Evgenii Dadonov from the injured reserve barely a month prior, on April 12. Since then, Dadonov has scored three goals in 14 games.
Even more impressive is the Stars’ young talent pool, the hallmark of which is Wyatt Johnston. Johnston has spent this postseason setting records, first becoming the youngest franchise player to score an overtime playoff goal in the Stars’ first-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights. Then, he joined Wayne Gretzky when he became the second player in NHL history to score both a powerplay and shorthanded goal in the postseason before the age of 21. Just in the nick of time, too – Wyatt Johnston’s 21st birthday is May 14.
Johnston’s currently sitting at 11 points in 14 games, just below the points-leaders of his team, Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson, who have 13 points in 14 games apiece. Those are impressive stats…until you pull up the Oilers’ analytics. Draisaitl leads his team with 25 points in 13 games, with McDavid at 23 points, and Evan Bouchard with 21 points. While the point totals drop off a bit from there, further down the roster the no less impressive it gets; Zach Hyman has totalled an unbelievable 12 goals in 13 games.
The disparity in individual player point totals indicates a huge problem for the Stars. Not only are the Oilers capable and confident in their ability to create and drive offensive pushes, but the Stars themselves don’t have one singular player who could rival the likes of McDavid or Draisaitl in their offensive output. While the Oilers could lean heavily on their top two forward lines, the Stars depend on all four of their forward lines functioning seamlessly to generate the same amount of offensive production as the Oilers.
It also makes the Stars’ goaltending, and their defense, key components of their winning strategy.
GettyJake Oettinger defends against Connor McDavid
Goaltending and Defense are Keys to Success
Since the Oilers are not only able to generate more chances on net but can finish on them too, Jake Oettinger is going to have to be sharp in the series. Despite the Game 1 loss, a close loss in double overtime does belie Oettinger’s ability to counter the Oilers’ offensive talent, at least for a while. And, in reality, not much of the Game 1 loss can be attributed to Oettinger’s failure to accurately track the puck or stymie a shot. Rather, two of the three goals by the Oilers came on the heels of key defensive mistakes by the Stars after they were unable to clear the puck twice, and then unable to break up a pass in transition.
Lapses in defense are a death knell against the Oilers, and while Oettinger kept the game close and winnable, a game can’t be won if you can’t score a goal. While the Oilers are certainly known for their offensive talent, their defensive pairings aren’t anything to scoff at either, and the Stars have to contend with the Oilers’ defense alongside their struggles to generate and capitalize upon offensive drives.
Oettinger has posted a .919 save percentage throughout 14 games, while Stuart Skinner has recorded a .888 save percentage in 11 games.
Special Teams Advantage
Even with the disparity in goal-scoring ability, the Stars have shown surprising depth in the previous two series when it comes to scoring short-handed. While the Stars’ powerplay and penalty kill were impressive against lackluster Avalanche special teams units, the Oilers are a different beast. Currently, the Oilers have both the best powerplay, at 37.5%, and the best penalty kill, at 91.4%, throughout the entirety of the playoffs thus far.
This was evidenced by the Oilers easily holding the Stars to a 0-5 differential on the powerplay, with just 4 shots on goal through three of the five powerplays. If the Oilers continue to hold the Stars in the neutral zone and prevent their powerplay units from mounting a considered attack, then this can wreak havoc on the Stars’ ability to maintain equal footing when it comes to goalscoring.
At the end of the day, the Stars will need to sort out their ability to score goals, whether that’s restructuring their special teams units to try to find a combination of players that can break through the Oilers’ tough penalty kill, or making a concerted effort throughout all four forward lines to increase their shots on goal. This will have to be in conjunction with locking down their defense and providing more net support to Oettinger.
The Oilers aren’t the Avalanche, and their roster and analytics certainly show that which will make the Stars’ ability to replicate their previous success a challenge.
But, it’s not all doom and gloom. Perhaps it’s best to forget that Game 1 ever happened, and move on to the next, the same way the Stars have risen to the occasion and overcome their perpetual Game 1 deficits in previous series.
Stars Head Coach Pete DeBoer said it himself;
“In a perfect world, we’d like to win Game 1. We’d like to win every series four straight, too. I think the main thing is you’ve got to find a way to survive and move on. We’ve got to park this game. We’ve been in this situation before. We’re the best road team in the league. I’m not as concerned about that. I think we need to find another level in our own game, and the wins will take care of themselves.”
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