Chicago Cubs’ Nico Hoerner, right, is tagged out in a rundown by San Diego Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim (7) during the third inning of a baseball game, Monday, April 8, 2024, in San Diego.
Denis Poroy/AP Photos
SEATTLE – An interesting pattern has played out on the base paths so far this Cubs season. They’ve been able to create havoc on the bases and score in the commotion. But entering a three-game series against the Mariners on Friday, they’d only stolen two bases, the fewest of any MLB team.
How much of that is due to a small sample size, versus a team philosophy?
“Stolen bases, they’re opportunistic,” manager Craig Counsell said this week. “You can’t force them. You take them when you can get them. We have a player who stole a lot of bases last year. It’s just, you’ve got to wait for the right opportunities.”
That player who stole 43 bases last season was second baseman Nico Hoerner. He accounted for almost a third of the Cubs’ 140 stolen bases last year. Entering Friday, Hoerner still hadn’t recorded a steal this season. But don’t expect that to hold.
“For myself personally, and for the group in general, we want to take bases,” Hoerner told the Sun-Times. “But we also obviously want to be smart. And forcing the cause, just to get stolen base numbers, doesn’t really help anything. It’s about scoring runs.”
Last season, Hoerner swiped nine bags in his first 15 games. But then it took 53 more games for him to add another nine. That’s just how baserunning plays out sometimes.
Hoerner also led off consistently for the first two months of last season. So, if he got on base that first at-bat, he had an open base in front of him. That was only a guarantee the first time through the order, but those situations add up.
This year, he’s led off twice but has more often hit seventh in the order. And he’s had Michael Busch, who entered Friday with a .364 on-base percentage, hitting in front of him.
“Personally I’ve, just by coincidence, had a runner ahead of me a lot when I’m on base, or I’m on second with two outs, or I’m on base and Ian [Happ is] up, and I just had a good feeling about his at-bat,” Hoerner said. “So many factors that go into that.”
Those are all good problems to have. Through Thursday, the Cubs had scored 73 runs, which was tied with the Braves for No. 4 in MLB, trailing only the Dodgers, Padres and Diamondbacks, who had played more games.
“I bet there’s some stretches of this year where we take a bunch of bags,” Hoerner said. “But so far, I don’t think it’s been passive. It’s more just like we haven’t had things line up yet.”
The Cubs have done a good job taking advantage of opponents’ defensive mistakes. On Opening Day, Busch scored on what was called a passed ball as Rangers catcher Jonah Heim argued that it had been a foul ball. And Christopher Morel managed a three-run Little League homer against the Rockies in the Wrigley Field home opener. Those aren’t the marks of a passive team.
“It’s really early to make big sweeping statements about [baserunning],” Counsell said. “But I think [third base coach Willie Harris] has a heck of a job, for sure. Going back to spring training, he’s been really, really good at making good decisions. You’ve got to make decisions over there, and you’ve got to make fast decisions.”
This time of year, statistical anomalies are sometimes simply attributable to a small sample. Look at Hoerner’s offensive performance overall. He entered Friday with a .167 batting average but a .362 on-base percentage.
“If you look at the expected stuff, it’s actually better than last year,” Counsell said. “So the batting average doesn’t look good. But he’s actually, in a lot of ways, having a better offensive season than he did last year. He’s walking at a higher rate, and the batted ball stuff has just been unlucky so far.”
Hoerner had a .345 xWOBA (expected weighted on-base average) as of Friday morning, according to Statcast, compared to .311 last year. In other words, if Hoerner keeps doing what he’s doing at the plate, the hits should eventually fall.