We did know that heading into the 2026 season, there is some renewed optimism around the Dallas Cowboys, that the team’s returning offensive juggernaut paired with a revamped defense under new coordinator Christian Parker and featuring at least five new starters and as many as seven new starters would give the team a legitimate shot at winning the division. And from a division win, well, who knows how far the Cowboys could push forward, especially if Parker and his new scheme can outpace modest hopes for defensive improvement.
In other words, if the Cowboys can go from a wretched defensive unit, which allowed 511 points, the most in franchise history, and was ranked No. 28 by Pro Football Focus, to something around league average, they could be a 10- or 11-win team. But if they could be above league average, well, who knows?
According to ESPN’s predictive formula known as FPI, the Cowboys are in for a pretty major leap.
Cowboys at No. 11 in FPI
FPI stands for Football Power Index, and the site describes it as, “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.”
That’s obviously not easy to do in early June. But ESPN did put out its first batch of FPI ratings, and the Cowboys rank … No. 11, with a 1.8. That means the Cowboys would be expected to have a 1.8-point edge over opponents. For comparison’s sake, after last year’s 7-9-1 season, the Cowboys’ FPI was minus-1.3.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that, among the 10 teams ahead of the Cowboys, six are in the NFC, including the East’s Eagles at No. 10. In fact, the Cowboys have a whopping 10 games against teams in the Top 10 in FPI.
Dak Prescott an MVP Candidate
Generally speaking, though, the Cowboys are being positively viewed at ESPN and elsewhere. Earlier this week, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott was tabbed as one of the site’s “10 MVP Candidates,” though that comes with the caveat with which we started: The defense needs to be just somewhere around above average.
Prescott can do much to carry the offense if that is the case. Not only does he have the best 1-2 combination in football at wide receiver, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, but he has a returning running back who racked up 1,201 yards last year, Javonte Williams.
From ESPN: “Prescott’s incredible 2025 campaign was overlooked due to his team’s lackluster defense, but I felt he was actually the second-most valuable player in the league last season (and ahead of Matthew Stafford). If he plays the same way, and the Cowboys’ defense can be even just mediocre, Prescott will be an MVP candidate.”
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