All signs point to a Conor McGregor return on July 11, when he takes on Max Holloway in a welterweight fight. The fighters have had their face-offs, words have been exchanged, and doubts extinguished; now we prepare for one of the biggest fights of the year.
There has been plenty of ambiguity surrounding McGregor’s return, from his contractual status to his surprising physique ahead of his 15th UFC contest. The Irishman walks into this fight as an underdog, but could hold the advantage since he’s competed at welterweight before, whereas Holloway has not.
While it’s Holloway’s welterweight debut, ‘The Notorious’ is 2-1 in the 170 lbs division, and his history in this weight class could hint at how his fight at UFC 329 could go.
Nate Diaz Defeated Conor McGregor in a Welterweight Fight in 2016
McGregor’s first UFC welterweight appearance was relatively short notice. He was at the height of his UFC career, having knocked out Jose Aldo in 13 seconds, and was on track to challenge then-champion Rafael Dos Anjos for the lightweight belt at UFC 196. ‘RDA’ suffered a broken foot, and The Ultimate Fighter Season 5 winner Nate Diaz stepped up to the plate.
At this point, Diaz was a relative unknown, carrying an 18-10 record. McGregor was a heavy favourite, telling Diaz to “get comfortable” in a welterweight contest.
McGregor looked good in the early going, but it was clear Diaz was here to stay. As early as the first round, McGregor’s face began to droop with fatigue, and while he was ahead, there was an air of concern about his gas tank. Durable Diaz popped his jab and eventually found a home for his straight left hand in the second round, putting McGregor on wobbly legs.
The finishing sequence saw Diaz overwhelm McGregor with volume, forcing a takedown, and then snatching his neck for a rear-naked choke. It was one of the biggest upsets in UFC history and a fight that exposed McGregor’s questionable cardio, especially at a heavier weight.
McGregor started strong, faded quickly, and gave up ground.
GettyNate Diaz applies a choke hold to win by submission against Conor McGregor during UFC 196
Conor McGregor Avenged The Nate Diaz Loss Immediately
However, the short-notice aspect gave McGregor some deniability, and he sought out an immediate rematch. McGregor spent much less time head-hunting, and patiently waited for Diaz to make mistakes on the feet. Diaz showed remarkable durability, absorbing several knockout blows.
Still, it wasn’t a dominant fight from McGregor. He gassed again, forfeiting the third and fifth rounds on all three judges’ scorecards. Diaz was one round away from winning the rematch, and stuffing the most hyped fighter in UFC history.
Again, McGregor started strong, faded, and almost lost the fight due to his questionable cardio.
GettyConor McGregor is 1-1 with Nate Diaz
Conor McGregor Destroyed Donald Cerrone in 40 Seconds
McGregor’s third welterweight UFC fight was against Donald Cerrone in 2020. It was McGregor’s first fight since being mauled by Khabib Nurmagomedov, and it lasted less than a minute.
Cerrone crumbled under the pressure immediately, letting McGregor get on the front foot and land devastating strikes from the clinch. A shoulder strike broke Cerrone’s nose, before a head kick and a flurry of punches finished him against the cage.
‘Cowboy’ was never known for his durability, and the fight didn’t last long enough to see if McGregor had addressed his cardio issues.
Why This Matters at UFC 329
McGregor enters his fourth welterweight fight in his UFC career at UFC 329, and while Holloway is making his welterweight debut, he’s younger and has stayed active during McGregor’s absence.
It’s a lofty expectation to believe that McGregor has fixed his welterweight cardio issues after a five-year layoff and at 37-years-old. Holloway, like Diaz, is known for his insane durability, output, and doggedness; until Ilia Topuria knocked him out at UFC 308, the Hawaiian arguably had the greatest chin in UFC history.
McGregor’s chances are best in the opening frame, but it’s unlikely that he’ll maintain the same pace into the later rounds, which Holloway is all too comfortable fighting in. After all, ‘Blessed’ has the latest finish in a title fight in UFC history, in the final second of the fifth round against Justin Gaethje at UFC 300.
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