No team in the NFL was higher off its own supply than the Washington Commanders headed into the 2025 season — those heady days when the franchise was considered a Super Bowl contender.
Headed into the 2026 season, and following a 5-12 record, things are being viewed in a much more realistic fashion. How realistic? The Commanders could very well be picked to finish last in the NFC East Division when those sort of projections start to come out.
It’s worth examining how we got from there to here in one short year. That examination starts with a befuddling series of offseason moves that included what Pro Football Focus singled out as one of the NFL’s worst free agent signings in the 2025 cycle when the Commanders inked defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw to a 3-year, $45 million contract.
“The Commanders got aggressive in an effort to boost their defensive line, giving Kinlaw a three-year, $45 million contract,” PFF’s Bradley Locker wrote. “However, the early results of the agreement seem to be playing out as some surmised. Kinlaw finished the year with a 46.8 overall PFF grade, including a 47.6 PFF run-defense mark and a 9.4% pass-rush win rate. In turn, interior defensive line is still an area of weakness for Washington.”
Problems With Kinlaw Signing From Start
The buzz on Kinlaw and his contract have been bad from the start.
Over the Cap’s Jason Fitzgerald gave the Commanders an “F” grade for the Kinlaw deal, which includes $30 million in guaranteed money.
“Most contracts in the NFL have some level of justification…this does not,” Fitzgerald wrote. “The Jets signing Kinlaw at $7.5M was a bad one last year and this just blows that away. 3 years, $45 million with $30 million full at signing. Insane. Teams that do stuff like this because they have cap room often wind up a mess in a year or two because the cap room is gone and they wonder why they have some of these contracts on the books. On paper this is the worst signing of the early free agency period.”
Kinlaw represented a considerable downgrade in terms of performance from departed 2-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, who signed a 3-year, $60 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings — although it’s not much of a savings in terms of finances.
First Round Bust for 49ers Got Multiple 2nd Chances
Kinlaw was a first round pick (No. 14 overall) by the San Francisco 49ers in the 2020 NFL draft and after playing 14 games as a rookie only played 10 games, total, over the next 2 seasons due to injuries and didn’t play all 17 games until his fourth season in 2023.
In his lone season with the New York Jets in 2024, Kinlaw had his version of a breakout season by starting all 17 games for the first time with career highs of 40 tackles and 4.5 sacks — still not numbers that jump off the page.
“I’m going to go with another very busy team this offseason … I’m going to go with the Commanders as my second loser,” The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz said on The Ringer NFL Show Podcast. ” … Javon Kinlaw, I think, was the biggest shock deal early on. Three years, $45 million for a player that has largely been forgotten since his days in San Francisco … Kinlaw was a free agent last year and signed a 1-year, $7 million contract and had 2 1/2 sacks in 12 games. He wasn’t even on my radar as a Top 50 free agent.”
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