Coach Michael Malone is a numbers guy.
Of course, he knows that his Nuggets lead the Lakers 3-1 and can close out the first-round playoff series Monday night at Ball Arena. But he’s also acutely aware of statistical trends floating like icebergs, threatening Denver’s voyage toward a second straight NBA championship.
Such as:
• The Nuggets have shot 46.0% from the floor, including an ugly 27.6% on 3-pointers. Los Angeles has made 49.9% of its shots (30.4% on 3-pointers).
• The Lakers have led in 136 of the series’ 192 minutes, a 70.8% clip. The Nuggets have only led for 21.8% of the time, with the score tied in the remaining 7.4%.
• In the last two games, the Lakers dominated in the paint, scoring 70 points in a Game 3 loss and 72 in their Game 4 victory on Saturday night. According to ESPN Stats & Information, L.A.’s 72 points in the paint are the most in a playoff game in the past 25 years.
• Denver has trailed at halftime in all four games, getting outscored in the first halves 233-198. The Lakers have held a double-digit lead in all four games.
Denver should get past the Lakers in the first round — no NBA team has ever rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a seven-game playoff series — but current trends could sink the Nuggets in the second round, where they are likely to face Minnesota.
“It would have been great to close out, 4-0, and sweep the Lakers again,” Malone said Saturday night, referring to Denver’s sweep in last year’s Western Conference Finals. “But that rarely happens. So, obviously, the first message is, we got Game 3, we have a chance to go home and close it out in our building. So we got one on the road, which is really important to close out any series.
“There is no panic. We have a chance to go out and close it, but the challenge within that is that we can’t continue to play like this. The (Lakers) are not rolling over. They are not going to give us the first round. We are going to have to earn it and take it.”
After Saturday night’s Game 4 loss, Nuggets swingman Michael Porter Jr. talked about the danger of Denver’s sluggish starts.
“It takes a lot of energy to come back from these double-digit leads — down 20, down 15, whatever it is,” Porter said. “Tonight, they did a good job of sustaining it. Whenever we got within 10 or eight, it seemed like they made a 3-pointer or a big shot. So credit to them.”
Malone was especially irked by Denver’s lackluster defense in the paint in its 119-108 loss.
“They shot 64% in our paint, (compared to) 33% in non-paint shots,” he said. “It starts in transition. Blow-bys, one-on-one containment, no help. I just didn’t think we had the requisite physicality or urgency. It did not seem like a close-out game for us.”
Saturday night, NBA icon LeBron James set the tone at the very beginning, showing that the Lakers were going about their business with urgency. The Nuggets didn’t respond in kind.
“We just weren’t ready to play,” Malone said. “Not just because of the scoreboard, but the ease with which they scored. The very first basket they scored was a walk-in layup. That set the tone for the whole night, and it was LeBron James. And it was downhill, with his left hand. That was an ominous sign.”
According to Second Spectrum, the Lakers have made 58 layups or dunks in the past two games, the most over a two-game playoff span since player tracking began in 2013-14.
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James, who scored 30 points in Game 4, said the Lakers still have a chance to make history.
“We’ve given ourselves another lifeline, and it’s a one-game series for us. Monday’s game is the most important game of the season for us, and we understand that,” James said.
Denver center Nikola Jokic, who had 33 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists for his 18th career triple-double in the playoffs, did not seem alarmed by Denver’s play. When asked if he was frustrated or upset about the Nuggets’ failure to win Game 4, he said, “I don’t feel that. They are a great team. We have another opportunity to win one. Hopefully, we will win at home, but if we lose, we will have another opportunity, so we will see.”
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